GTKY: Driverless cars

hoffse · April 2015

So Google claims it will have driverless cars on the road in 5 years.

Let's say it happens. And then a year or two or three later it's time to trade in your car and suddenly you have a choice.

Would you buy a driverless car? Would you pay a premium for it? How much?

I was having this debate with H last night, and we couldn't agree

hoffse · April 2015

My answer: I would absolutely look at them, and I would be willing to pay a premium over what my budget would normally be - possibly a pretty big one. I'm thinking around $5-7K. My reasons:

1) I'm willing to pay a premium for safety. I wish that the safest technology was always available in the base models, but that's not what happens (yet). So I would pay something for that. Some may doubt their safety, but so far those cars have far more collective driving experience than I will ever have, and they are designed to be more cautious than I will ever be. So yeah... I figure I'm probably safer by not driving myself.

2) I spend around 40 minutes per day commuting, and if I had those extra 40 minutes to bill I would have an extra month of billable work added in each year, without leaving my house earlier or staying at the office later. That would result in either a bigger bonus at the end of the year or else the ability to take more time off in week-long blocks.

Ultimately, I would really love to be a one-car family and utilize driverless cars for the daily commute. I would keep one family car for when we're leaving the city. We would need the family car a few times a month but practically.... if there was a fleet of driverless cars available to call when we needed transportation within the city (a la uber), that would cover 85% of our driving needs.

Wulfgar · April 2015

I would not want a driverless car. To me, the biggest problem is that too many people in the United States don't focus on driving when behind the wheel. They do everything else except pay attention to the road. In most of Europe, the only thing you can do in the driver seat is drive. They also ticket people who drive the wrong speed in the wrong lane.

hoffse · April 2015

Yeah the focus thing is a big reason why I want one. I think distracted driving is a huge issue. I also space out after awhile - I think most people do, whether they are playing on their cell phones or not. I figure a robot isn't going to do anything but drive.

abrewer5 · April 2015

I wouldn't want one immediately... Maybe after a few years of working out the kinks and dealing with any issues that come up. I would wait for them to perfect the technology.

In addition repairs/insurance would probably be sky high immediately, so aside from paying a premium on the car you'd be paying more for those things as well.

Driving is relaxing to me a lot of time, so I don't mind it much.

als1982 · April 2015

I don't drive much, less than 15 miles on a week day and pretty often my car will sit in the garage the entire weekend, so this wouldn't be something I would buy until it becomes the norm.

smbenevides1989 · April 2015

I don't know. I think the biggest scare factor for me would be a mechanics failure or a locked steering wheel/pedal that could cause an accident. I can see how it could benefit from other areas, but we as a society, are starting to heavily rely on "self" items.

But, granted, I would probably look at one down the road. Would I get one? Maybe after a few years of testing, being on the road, and a high success rate. But I think I'm a little skeptical.

jtmh2012 · April 2015

I think I'll wait for the first couple generations before buying one. Let them get the bugs worked out. There are times I think having one would be nice, but that said, I actually enjoy driving.

Personally, I think the lawyers will be what holds this back (no offense hoffse). Who is responsible when this thing gets in an accident? The manufacturer? The owner? Whose life does it prioritize in the event of a pending accident? Yours? The three people in the other car?

I do think this will be good overall though. You have many people who do not prefer driving, actually fear driving, or are unable to drive. Or being able to put your kid in a car and send it over to grandma's house, school, friend's house, soccer games, whatever. Maybe even lead to more efficient parking lots/garages.

formerlyGDaisy09 · April 2015

jtmh2012 said:
I think I'll wait for the first couple generations before buying one. Let them get the bugs worked out. There are times I think having one would be nice, but that said, I actually enjoy driving.

Personally, I think the lawyers will be what holds this back (no offense hoffse). Who is responsible when this thing gets in an accident? The manufacturer? The owner? Whose life does it prioritize in the event of a pending accident? Yours? The three people in the other car?

I do think this will be good overall though. You have many people who do not prefer driving, actually fear driving, or are unable to drive. Or being able to put your kid in a car and send it over to grandma's house, school, friend's house, soccer games, whatever. Maybe even lead to more efficient parking lots/garages.

this is a good point. Insurance companies may also have some impact on this. I imagine that insurance premiums might start out pretty high for these cars.

I like the idea, but I'm not sure I'd be interested in one. I like driving, and I get motion sickness if I try to read in the car.

Xstatic3333 · April 2015

It sounds like this may be a minority opinion, but I don't see myself being particularly interested in a driverless car. Something about them makes me uneasy. As everything in our lives gets more and more automated, I picture us ending up like the future people in Wall-E before too long. Hopefully I'm being paranoid, however, and it will be put to good use in all of the ways PP have suggested.

One area I would like to see this applied is making public transportation easier, more practical, and more affordable. Sometime in the next generation or two we're going to have to find a way to use less fossil fuels or risk running out. If these driverless cars could be used to create coordinated pick-up/drop-off systems for people to get to work and back I could see that being very useful. I'd be willing to pay for a service like that if meant we could be a one-car family.

simplyelise · April 2015

I only have a 15 minute each way commute. Husband's is 35 miles each way, so that might make more sense for him. But I don't see us prioritizing a self-driven car over other expenses like vacation or things for (not-yet-existent) kiddos. Maybe if they really become a thing that takes over a competing percentage of the market and the prices become reasonable. But then again, not having control would really freak me out...

noffgurl · April 2015

The thought of not having direct control of a vehicle at all times scares the heck out of me, this is why I'm probably the worlds worst backseat driver. I am also terrified of robots that can do that much.

hoffse · April 2015

jtmh2012 said:
I think I'll wait for the first couple generations before buying one. Let them get the bugs worked out. There are times I think having one would be nice, but that said, I actually enjoy driving.

Personally, I think the lawyers will be what holds this back (no offense hoffse). Who is responsible when this thing gets in an accident? The manufacturer? The owner? Whose life does it prioritize in the event of a pending accident? Yours? The three people in the other car?

I do think this will be good overall though. You have many people who do not prefer driving, actually fear driving, or are unable to drive. Or being able to put your kid in a car and send it over to grandma's house, school, friend's house, soccer games, whatever. Maybe even lead to more efficient parking lots/garages.

Yeah I agree. I've read that figuring out the insurance aspect to it is really the last major hurdle.

They've been test driving them for 5 years now, and there will be another 5 years of testing before Google's "due date." I think I read somewhere that there has been one accident in the five years, but it was while the car was being manually driven by a human... so they've never actually had an accident (yet) while in self-drive mode. I do think an accident in self-drive mode is inevitable at some point, so it will be interesting to see how that gets handled. When I was reading about it yesterday, I stumbled across an article from a year ago saying Google had just passed 700,000 accident-free miles in self-drive mode. That's pretty amazing. Each car's information goes to a central database, so as one car "learns," they all learn.

I think the sweet spot with this will be as a replacement for taxis and uber. I like the uber experience more than taxis, but it's not regulated enough to make me feel safe. And maybe I'm just unlucky, but I've never had a great experience in a taxi. I kind of have this vision of fleets of these cars being available in many cities, and people being able to just call them. Since the car is a computer, the fastest/most efficient car would be the one to pick you up and drop you off before being routed to another customer. Ultimately that would reduce the number of cars people feel like they have to buy, it would reduce the amount of concrete we require for parking decks and parking lots (don't know about you, but my car spends 95% of its life parked), and you aren't having to deal with a potentially uninsured uber driver or an unsavory taxi experience.

jtmh2012 · April 2015

The other thing to keep in mind, while self-driving cars are looking good, they currently only perform well in very controlled circumstances. They're driving down highly planned/mapped out routes for the most part. It's not yet to the level of getting in and picking a random destination. We are getting there though.

My thought on the parking lot/garage space was more that look how much room is needed just for occupants to be able to enter/leave the vehicle. If the car and part itself, you could decrease that space.

The other hurdle will be the between time where both manual and self-driven cars share the road.

MommyLiberty5013 · April 2015

DH is a pilot and while they do have and use auto-pilot, it's only for times of what I'll call "normalcy." In other words, the airlines still want the judgment and physical touch feel a pilot has when flying in hazardous areas like weather or in needing to make quick decisions when multiple dangerous factors come into play.

I think driving a car is similar. You have things like cruise control for this very reason. It removes the tedium of keeping your foot on the gas, but if you are aware of its usage limits it's not advised at night, in poor visibility, in poor weather or on curvy roads. A person's brain is used in these situations, instead when higher intellect and functioning is still possible.

Furthermore, auto pilot gets messed up and shuts off. So what then? The pilot is still present to remedy the problem. S/he is there mentally and physically. I think that if people had driverless cars, they would rely on the technology too much and too frequently and then when a problem occurred, they would be ill-equipped to handle the challenge.

hoffse · April 2015

MommyLiberty5013 said:
DH is a pilot and while they do have and use auto-pilot, it's only for times of what I'll call "normalcy." In other words, the airlines still want the judgment and physical touch feel a pilot has when flying in hazardous areas like weather or in needing to make quick decisions when multiple dangerous factors come into play.
I think driving a car is similar. You have things like cruise control for this very reason. It removes the tedium of keeping your foot on the gas, but if you are aware of its usage limits it's not advised at night, in poor visibility, in poor weather or on curvy roads. A person's brain is used in these situations, instead when higher intellect and functioning is still possible.
Furthermore, auto pilot gets messed up and shuts off. So what then? The pilot is still present to remedy the problem. S/he is there mentally and physically. I think that if people had driverless cars, they would rely on the technology too much and too frequently and then when a problem occurred, they would be ill-equipped to handle the challenge.

Yeah that's a good point. I think right now they're designing them so that the car is on auto but can be switched to manual at a moment's notice if needed - of course, that doesn't prevent people from totally ignoring what's happening.

Well it will be interesting to watch this unroll. I think that driverless or at least partially driverless is where all of this is headed, and it wouldn't surprise me if that becomes the norm in 20 or 30 yaers. The technology is very close to being there right now, and it seems like car companies are giving us all a soft landing by slowly rolling out elements of driving that can be automated - emergency stops, parallel parking, etc.

simplyelise · April 2015

"Each car's information goes to a central database, so as one car "learns," they all learn."

Skynet is live, y'all!!

vlagrl29 · April 2015

No way! I don't trust technology enough to drive for me and why are we that lazy to not even drive our own car. People are so obsessed with the smart phones that they don't have enough time to control their own cars?

short+sassy · April 2015

I already have a self driving car. I am not a morning person at all and am barely conscious anyway on my drive to work every day, lol.

No, but seriously, I do not take driving lightly. I wouldn't be a "first mover" on these cars but, assuming they are proven to be safer after a few years in real world conditions, I would like one and would pay probably 25% more for a car like this than a comparable non-self driving one.

As long as they come in convertible style .

blondie42107 · April 2015

I just asked H... The computer geek in him said, "No way. People will hack them. It has CSI written all over it."

Wulfgar · April 2015

From what I have been seeing from the heavy truck side of things, the automatic driving will be more for highways and expressways with few on/ off ramps and where you want to pack the most vehicles into the smallest space that way you can also get fuel benefits from drafting.

I don't think that they have safely figured out how to do the inner city stop and go driving with a lot of inputs from all sides. That will be the last step from what I understand.

Also, most of the testing that I have heard going on is through areas that are more rural highways thus less traffic. If not in simulators because of the liabilities.

MommyLiberty5013 · April 2015

Just read an article that American Airlines had to cancel a few dozen flights because their in-flight apps the pilots use on their iPads weren't working. Technology isn't the end-all, be-all.

short+sassy · April 2015

Wulfgar said:
From what I have been seeing from the heavy truck side of things, the automatic driving will be more for highways and expressways with few on/ off ramps and where you want to pack the most vehicles into the smallest space that way you can also get fuel benefits from drafting.

I don't think that they have safely figured out how to do the inner city stop and go driving with a lot of inputs from all sides. That will be the last step from what I understand.

Also, most of the testing that I have heard going on is through areas that are more rural highways thus less traffic. If not in simulators because of the liabilities.

That makes a lot of sense. I have a part-time job where I do a lot of city driving with a lot of stops and, when I was thinking about this yesterday, it was hard for me to picture a car being able to do that automatically.

Really, I would especially want other people to have these cars more than myself. It would be GREAT if people would stop crazily cutting each other off or pulling away from the curb without even looking...I'm talking to you taxi cab drivers.

GTKY: Driverless cars

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