August 2006 Weddings
Dear Community,
Our tech team has launched updates to The Nest today. As a result of these updates, members of the Nest Community will need to change their password in order to continue participating in the community. In addition, The Nest community member's avatars will be replaced with generic default avatars. If you wish to revert to your original avatar, you will need to re-upload it via The Nest.
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Note: This only affects The Nest's community members and will not affect members on The Bump or The Knot.
Our tech team has launched updates to The Nest today. As a result of these updates, members of the Nest Community will need to change their password in order to continue participating in the community. In addition, The Nest community member's avatars will be replaced with generic default avatars. If you wish to revert to your original avatar, you will need to re-upload it via The Nest.
If you have questions about this, please email help@theknot.com.
Thank you.
Note: This only affects The Nest's community members and will not affect members on The Bump or The Knot.
CA Girls: Prop 8 winning...
BREAKING NEWS: A new poll just released by KPIX, San Francisco's CBS television affiliate, reveals a shocking shift in support for Proposition 8. According to the poll, likely California voters now favor passage of Prop 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent, following a recent blitz of advertising by supporters of the initiative. Meanwhile, an internal poll just released by the "No on 8" campaign confirms the KPIX poll numbers, showing Prop 8 winning 47%-43%.
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Re: CA Girls: Prop 8 winning...
I am going to donate soon.
WHAT!
That's it, I'm adding no on 8 to my phone bank roster.
Oh no, this is so devastating.
There are a lot of not nice thoughts in my head about people right now.
Dumb question, but can out of state people donate? And if so, what's the site or address?
Out of state people (e.g. the Mormon Church in Utah) are practically funding the yes vote.
Out of state people (e.g. the Mormon Church in Utah) are practically funding the yes vote.
Ok, couple of points on this from a polling perspective.
1. Sample is 670 LV, which has an MoE of +/- 3.9%. ?The poll records 47% yes and 42% no on 8, with 10% undecided. ?But with that margin of error, it's not decisive.
2. The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA which uses IVR. ?In some ways, that might get you a better sample on an issue like this, since presumably people might be afraid to give their true responses to a live pollster. ?SurveyUSA also has a decent rating with fivethirtyeight, so I won't let my dislike of IVR polling in general to bias me here.
3. The scary stuff: I think SurveyUSA got the age weights wrong (they undersampled young people and oversampled older people, so I reweighted based on Census Data adjusted for voter likelihood by age. ?Unfortunately that doesn't shift the numbers much--in fact, it makes prop 8 look slightly more likely to pass. ?But I think there's something wrong with SurveyUSA's 18-34 sample here...they were the most favorable to Prop 8?!? ?Really? ?18-34 year olds are the most anti-gay? ? Not buying that for a second. ?It just doesn't fit with other polling around the issue.?
I don't know what to make of this, but this seems off to me, and other pollsters I trust more (PPIC, Field, and LA Times) didn't have numbers anywhere near this last month.
Deductive reasoning isn't a conservative or liberal attribute. ~epphd
I was just going to say this.
No, not really. Wow, yeah, you are a wealth of knowledge. I am impressed.
Wow, yeah4me, thanks for the insight! You're right, 18-34 should be the most opposed to Prop 8.
A few months back when the polls tipped for the first time in favor of gay marriage in general, NPR had on the pollster who said they believed their data to be more accurate because they use cell phones. Capturing young people correctly really sways the results on this issue.
My inbox was just flooded with 3 emails from different groups warning about these poll #s and urging action. I donated again, despite my previous promise that I was done with throwing $$ at this election. It could be a boon for the No campaign, whether or not the data is flawed.