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Gallup Poll: Obama up by 10!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111112/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Ahead-51-41.aspx

October 13, 2008

Gallup Daily: Obama Ahead, 51% to 41%

His advantage could be as narrow as 7 points, depending on likely voters

PRINCETON, NJ -- Voter preferences in the presidential race continue to be generally auspicious for Barack Obama's election prospects only three weeks ahead of the eve of Election Day. Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 51% to 41%, among all registered voters, according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 10-12.

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The percentage of registered voters favoring Obama has been 50%, 51%, or 52% in each Gallup Poll Daily tracking report since Oct. 4. Support for McCain has been a steady 41% to 43% across the same time period. Thus, although the gap between the two candidates has varied from seven to 11 points in recent days, voter preferences have, in fact, been quite stable. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Likely Voters

Among typical "likely voters" -- the subset of registered voters who appear most likely to vote on Election Day according to their current voting intentions and past voting behavior -- Obama's lead is a slightly narrower seven points, 51% to 44%. This assumes that about 60% of the voting age population will vote, slightly higher than the 55% who turned out in 2004.

Among a more broadly defined likely voter group that only takes into account current voting intentions -- not past voting behavior -- Obama's lead is the same 10 points as among all registered voters, 53% to 43%. This group represents approximately two-thirds of the general public, a significantly higher proportion than has turned out in any recent election. -- Lydia Saad

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Re: Gallup Poll: Obama up by 10!

  • I give a very reserved "woo hoo!" to this news.

    I want to breathe a sign of relief, but I won't feel that until the election is officially called for Obama.  After past years poll shenanigans, the furthest I'll go is to say I'm cautiously optimistic. 

    But, YAY!!!

  • I heard some rep strategist say that if Obama was at 50 or over before the election, the race would be over for McCain.

    Double whoot! 

  • Yes, but it remains to be seen if they will actually count his extra 10% of votes.
    image
    "As of page 2 this might be the most boring argument ever. It's making me long for Rape Day." - Mouse
  • Forgive me for being  party-pooper, but I still have the sour aftertaste of New Hampshire in my mouth, and it won't go away.

  • I will not believe any poll except for the one on Nov. 4.

    And even then, I may not breathe easy until inauguration day, lol...

  • imageumwife11:

    I will not believe any poll except for the one on Nov. 4.

    And even then, I may not breathe easy until inauguration day, lol...

    Agreed. Until I'm watching the inauguration parade from DH's work rooftop, I'm not sure I'll truly believe it.

  • imagesoprano87:

    Agreed. Until I'm watching the inauguration parade from DH's work rooftop, I'm not sure I'll truly believe it.

    Rooftop my _ass. You are going to be on the street , freezing your butt off with the rest of us. Because if he wins there WILL be a DC E08 GTG.  Trust.  

    "HOW many US citizens and ranchers have been decapitated in Arizona by roving bands of paperless aliens, and how will a requirement that I have papers on me make that not happen?"courtesy of SueSue
  • Sweet, I'm in!  Remind me to take the day off of work... and maybe the next day ;-)
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