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CA: Prop 4 winning?
This poll is from September (and small?), but shows Prop 4 ahead by a lot. It seems to be getting lost among the glut of props this year. I've only seen the one No on 4 ad (the same bubble one they used last time), and no Yes ads.
I thought the Yes argument in the voter guide was very persuasive with the angle of protecting girls from sexual predators who force them into an abortion w/o parental notification.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?blogid=14&entry_id=30761
California's fast-growing Latino population may be giving a boost to Prop. 4, the parental notification on abortion measure, a new Field Poll suggests.
Of the 830 likely voters surveyed, 49 percent backed the measure, which would require doctors to notify a girl's parent or relative before performing an abortion on the unmarried minor. Forty-one percent were opposed, with 10 percent undecided.
But the margin in support of the measure soars to 62 percent, compared to 31 percent opposed, among Latinos, who now make up 17 percent of the state's likely voters. And that could help push Prop. 4 over the top on Nov. 4 after similar initiatives lost in 2005 and 2006.
"Latino voters are more supportive of the measure than in the past elections," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. "The timing of the vote also helps, since Latinos make up a larger proportion of the voters in a presidential election."
In the previous two elections in which the parental notification measure appeared, most of the undecided voters broke to the "No" side in the days before the election, following strong campaigns by abortion rights groups arguing that the measure was a thinly disguised effort to bypass California's abortion protections. But with the initiative so close to a majority this time, opponents have little margin for error if they want to torpedo it.
While the measure is strongly partisan, with 69 percent of Republicans in favor and 50 percent of Democrats opposed, it's an even stronger ideological issue. Eighty percent of likely voters who call themselves strongly conservative back Prop. 4, along with 71 percent of moderate conservatives. Among strong liberals, 66 percent oppose the initiative, as do 60 percent of moderate liberals.
Edited to make link clicky.
Re: CA: Prop 4 winning?
There is - from the Yes on Prop 4 Q&A:
Sarah?s Law provides that, where a girl has been physically, sexually, or emotionally abused by either parent, the physician may instead notify another adult family member, such as a grandparent, aunt, uncle or sibling over the age of 21.
Sarah?s Law also provides a procedure to obtain a judicial waiver of the notification requirement. The judicial waiver process is fast, free, and confidential. A minor only needs to fill out a few forms to get a private hearing before a juvenile court judge, in the judge?s private chambers or private courtroom. She will have a guardian appointed for the hearing, and a court-paid attorney as well, if she wants one. If the judge finds that she is either sufficiently mature and well-informed to make the decision herself, or that notifying a parent is not in her best interest (because, for example, of threatened abuse), then the judge will grant a waiver allowing a doctor to perform an abortion without notifying a parent.
When considering the ?hard cases? of physical or sexual abuse by a parent, one has to ask whether this girl would really be better off if she received a secret abortion and then returned home to that same situation. Rather than allowing that to happen, Sarah?s Law requires the physician who notifies another adult relative or the judge who grants a waiver to notify child protective services about evidence of abuse, so that the problem can be dealt with, not covered up. A minor who has been impregnated by her father needs help. A secret abortion will not solve her problems.
There's also a medical exception:
Sarah?s Law has an exception for medical emergencies. The doctor need not notify a parent if the delay in doing so would seriously endanger her life or health. As a practical matter, this situation almost never arises.
Of course, I don't think this is enough. "Just a few forms" is plenty barrier for a teenage girl scared out of her mind that her father would beat her to a bloody pulp if he found out about either her pregnancy or her trying to get a judicial waiver not to tell him.
I'd want to know if my daughter would come to me too, but that's my job to foster that kind of a relationship with my daughter, not the gov'ts job.
I found out at the Yes on 4 site that the Governator supports this! What the eff!
I can totally understand his fears.
The thing is, this is not about the daughters that come from good families who have open an frank conversations about relationships, sex, pregnancy, contraception, etc. These girls are already going to their parents. I have no doubt that you would foster such a relationship with your daughter, so even if no law is in place, she will be able to come to you when she faces a difficult decision.
No, the thing is, this is about the girls who don't come from families where relationships, sex, pregnancy, and contraception can be discussed. Girls who come from neglectful homes. Girls who come from abusive homes. Girls who come from homes where the fetus is the product of incest or rape by a close family friend. We are creating an environment that is potentially very dangerous for them. And for what? Because *I* would want my daughter to come to me? That's a very selfish reason to impose strict policy on others.
Yes, prop 4 has a judicial waiver. But the time, money, and trouble that it will take to get a pregnant, scared teen to utilize it is cumbersome and unrealistic. This version of prop 4 (it's already been rejected twice before by CA voters) also has a provision where the girl can notify a family relative instead of a parent. BUT in order to do so she must file criminal charges of abuse against her parents. Riiiight. Also realistic.
No, this prop is a wolf in sheep's clothing and must be rejected.
Are they still calling it Sarah's law when it was named for a girl with a completely different (and hispanic) name?
Zoe, of course parents would want to know about their daughters. And, in the large majority of cases, with no laws requiring it, they do. But, think about the real repercussions if notification were required. You have 2 situations. One is the girl who fears her parents' reactions so she seeks out an illegal and dangerous abortion. It doesn't matter how her parents would react and whether she realistically assessed the situation; what matters is how she acts knowing the law. In this case, judicial bypass doesn't really matter if the girl is willing to bypass the entire legal system.
In the other, parents may pose a danger to the girl. Sure, there's bypass for that, but a girl who rightly fears her parents is unlikely to trust a judge because the people she's supposed to trust in her life, her parents, are the threat. So, why would she trust a judge? Especially when if there's a history of abuse or neglect, she may have had bad experiences with the legal system.
And, bypass itself. While it usually is quick, just a few days in most cases, you're talking about yet another step for the girl to accomplish while still being required to go to school. How are they supposed to do waiting periods and mandatory pre-counseling that are required in some states and also get the time for a judicial bypass? It's so daunting that people will again choose the route with less hassle, a dangerous illegal abortion.
Yes, he sees serious issues if this happens. After all, gay rights groups, women's rights groups, the entire progressive movement in CA has been solidly behind Latino rights for decades. My H thinks sh!t will hit the fan if it turns out the Latino's killed gay rights/women's rights issues on the ballot.
Some new polling data will be released shortly on prop 4 and 8 so, I will refrain from hyperventilating until I see it.
Yes! This really gets under my skin. Seems to be a trend with a lot of prop campaigns this year - we don't have a good argument, so we're going to lie instead!
Zoe - you should watch the ad if you can, it's pointed straight at people who feel the way you do. I think it's a fantastic ad.
http://www.noonprop4.org/connect/youtubevideos/
Something my H refers to as the "elephant in the room," but Latinos are actually very socially conservative due to pressures and culture surrounding the dominance of the Catholic church in many Latino lives.