August 2006 Weddings
Democratic presidential candidate Barack
Obama is poised to win California by the biggest landslide in the
history of modern elections - outweighing even Ronald Reagan's huge
wins in his home state - thanks to a crushing margin of support from
young voters, independents and Latinos, a new Field Poll shows.
Obama and his vice presidential running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, now
lead Republican presidential candidate John McCain and Alaska Gov.
Sarah Palin by a whopping 55-33 percent in the nation's most populous
state, according to the Field Poll of 966 likely voters conducted Oct.
18-28.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, said that Obama's huge
lead underscores the Democrat's solid success in appealing to voter
groups that are emerging as the fastest-growing and potentially most
influential electorates in the nation.
The Illinois senator is leading McCain in every area of the state,
among every age group except voters over 65, and holds leads in every
demographic and income group, as well as among both men and women, the
poll shows.
"He really is doing very well among the new emerging voters in
California, in the largest areas where the voting population is growing
fastest - the Latino vote, the youth vote and the nonpartisan vote,"
DiCamillo said. "These are groups that will have a huge amount of
influence down the road."
With just five days until the November 2008 election, the latest
Field Poll also underscores the potential impact of the coming election
on congressional races. Asked their preferences for the U.S. House of
Representatives in their district, 50 percent said they are inclined to
vote for Democrats, while just 29 percent expressed a preference for
Republicans in those seats, the poll showed.
DiCamillo said the latest survey dramatizes some of the historic
trends that have, from the start, made a GOP presidential win a serious
uphill battle.
"This election is being held at a time when there is overwhelming
agreement among Californians and Americans that the country is
seriously on the wrong track," said DiCamillo. "And it's being held at
a time when the incumbent administration is getting record low
job-performance ratings and have gotten them for more than a year."
"So the opportunity for the party out of office to capture the
presidency is very high," he said. "It was really up to Obama to
convince voters that he was up to the task and make voters comfortable
enough with him - and I think he's succeeded."
And DiCamillo said the poll also underscores the failure of
McCain's strategy to push the Democrat's unfavorable ratings higher
through negative attacks, DiCamillo said.
The poll shows that despite GOP attacks suggesting Obama is too
radical and untested to be president, Obama continues to hold 61
percent favorable ratings with California, compared to 30 percent who
view him unfavorably.
But McCain's standing among voters has fallen since those attacks
began. In January, McCain was viewed favorably by 50 percent of the
voters, compared to 28 percent who viewed him unfavorably; today, more
voters see the Arizona senator in an unfavorable light - 47 percent,
compared to just 43 percent who view him favorably.
Among the other findings of the Field Poll:
-- The choice of Palin as McCain's vice president has been viewed through an "extremely partisan" lens, said DiCamillo.
While Republicans view Palin positively by 74-19 percent, Democrats
and nonpartisans have a very negative image of her; Democrats hold a
75-15 percent unfavorable-favorable rating of Palin, and nonpartisans
also have a 65-20 percent negative assessment of her, the poll showed.
The Palin pick "really did nothing to broaden the McCain support
levels among his own base," said DiCamillo, who said that Democratic
and independent voters tended to see it as a choice that "reflected
poorly on his judgment."
By contrast, Biden is viewed more positively than negatively, by a 57-24 percent ratio.
-- McCain is leading among Protestant voters by a 51-38 percent
ratio, and he holds leads among evangelical Christians with a strong
56-34 percent ratio. But other religions, including Catholics, are
overwhelmingly with Obama, the poll shows.
-- Registered Democrats are 85 percent favorable toward Obama, with
7 percent unfavorable, but Republicans are not quite so strong in their
support of McCain, with just 80 percent being favorable to the GOP
candidate, and 12 percent unfavorable.
The Field Poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points among likely voters.
E-mail Carla Marinucci at cmarinucci@sfchronicle.com.
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Obama to win CA in biggest landslide EVER
Poll predicts Obama landslide in California
Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer
Thursday, October 30, 2008
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/30/MNPR13QI21.DTL
Re: Obama to win CA in biggest landslide EVER
:: let this be a trend dust ::
I don't buy polls. I think they were created to be wrong. Not until next Tuesday when actual real numbers are coming in will I believe all the claims.
my read shelf:
yeah this is why I got a NH absentee ballot, it might count for something
Not that Ive transferred anything over yet to be a CA resident anyway.