August 2006 Weddings
bunnybean
member
Dear Community,
Our tech team has launched updates to The Nest today. As a result of these updates, members of the Nest Community will need to change their password in order to continue participating in the community. In addition, The Nest community member's avatars will be replaced with generic default avatars. If you wish to revert to your original avatar, you will need to re-upload it via The Nest.
If you have questions about this, please email help@theknot.com.
Thank you.
Note: This only affects The Nest's community members and will not affect members on The Bump or The Knot.
Our tech team has launched updates to The Nest today. As a result of these updates, members of the Nest Community will need to change their password in order to continue participating in the community. In addition, The Nest community member's avatars will be replaced with generic default avatars. If you wish to revert to your original avatar, you will need to re-upload it via The Nest.
If you have questions about this, please email help@theknot.com.
Thank you.
Note: This only affects The Nest's community members and will not affect members on The Bump or The Knot.
OMG OMG go to fivethirtyeight!
98% chance of an Obama victory!!!
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Re: OMG OMG go to fivethirtyeight!
I guess they didn't hear McCain's speech today. "The Mac is Back. We never give up!"
Is that an updated number? I looked this morning, but I don't remember what it was.
Also - fivethirtyeight answered the question burning in my mind all day - exactly how many votes does it take to get a landslide: 375 (Obama's chances of that = 31%)
Anything you can achieve through hard work, you could also just buy.
I will not look. I will not get excited. I will not will not will not.
This internal battle is killing me, lol
The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7.
McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.
However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.
McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.
I am a runner, knitter, scientist, DE-IVF veteran, and stage III colon cancer survivor.
Ditto this, 10000%!
fivethirtyeight.com is going to be the death of me.
Well then don't peek at pollster...
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Tomorrow, Barack Obama will become the first Democratic Presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win an outright majority of the votes cast on Election Day -- and with it a sizeable majority of electoral votes -- making him the next President of the United States.
We make this projection knowing that the gap is closing both nationally and in key states; it is our sense, however, that this trend would have to continue for another 10 days for the election to swing back to McCain.
FBR, looks like it's a kind of British Bradley effect like phenomenon where you don't tell people that you're voting for the unpopular party.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor
Seriously! Do y'all not remember 2004? or 2000?
Speaketh not ye of victory, dammit!