Politics & Current Events
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Our tech team has launched updates to The Nest today. As a result of these updates, members of the Nest Community will need to change their password in order to continue participating in the community. In addition, The Nest community member's avatars will be replaced with generic default avatars. If you wish to revert to your original avatar, you will need to re-upload it via The Nest.
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Thank you.
Note: This only affects The Nest's community members and will not affect members on The Bump or The Knot.
Milestones for Romney
Today, he leads among Gallup likely voters 52-45. That's a big lead. He also takes the lead in the RealClearPolitics electoral college averages for the first time, 206-201, with the addition of North Carolina into the "leaning Romney" category.
Virginia is a state that Nate Silver has (or had, depending on if it changed since I wrote this) as red, but the RCP hasn't turned yet.
"I want the left to know they screwed with the wrong guy."
-This signature may or may not have been selectively edited.
Re: Milestones for Romney
I also think it's neat that even on Nate Silver's site, Romney's up to 256, right on the cusp of victory if one or two states change. Florida's at 77% chance of Romney victory, Virginia and Colorado seem rather solid as well.
Wisconsin and Ohio should be interesting. I'm still hoping for the best but fearing the worst.
I always found Silver's 66-34% type stat to be way out there, especially when the popular vote is so close. It's misleading.
I could see Romney winning Ohio or Wisconsin and winning the election. If the unions threw everything at Walker, and he ended up winning by a larger margin than in '10, there's obviously a solid core of voters out there.
Who knows. But right now he gives Obama a better chance at winning Ohio and Wiscosin (69% and 75%, respectively) than he gives Romney of winning Florida (66%).
I definitely don't think it is in the bag for Obama by any means.
Dude, everyone is questioning Gallup right now. Check out http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Yes, I went to high school with Nate Silver, so I'm a bit biased, but he has great info. He wrote a great piece on exaggeration of poll bounces.
ETA: oh, I see you've already stated you don't trust Nate. Lol. You are wrong, but okay.
In presidential elections, 52-48 is a landslide victory.
Nate's model factors in a lot of data besides just polling.
"Everyone" is a bit hyperbolic. I already said that I thought Romney would be down 280-257. I find the numbers a bit inflated on Silver's site.
I could do without the "you are wrong, but ok" snark.
I'm sure this statement is unnecessary, but I could do without the misinformation and ignorance you spread on this board. Obviously.