New CA Prop 8 polling

yeah4me

Notice that the age breakdowns are much closer to what I said they should be after the last poll. ?18-35 year olds are majority no, 65+ is the highest proportion of yes voters.

http://static.cbslocal.com/station/kpix/docs/2008/prop8-poll.pdf

And the topline horserace is 48% to 45% with 7% undecided. ?So "no" is still polling behind, but within the Margin of Error now.

I've got a group coming over tonight to phonebank with me. ?Anyone else want to get involved? ?It's easy to make calls from home.?

yeah4me

As I mentioned last time, I think SurveyUSA's age weights are slightly off as well. ?When I reweight their data to what I think turnout will look like, I'm getting 47% "Yes" to 46% "No", so a tiny bit more favorable and very, very close.

BlackMamba*

God. I'm sick.

Pescalita

Phonebanking scares me. I've never done it before, but it just seems like an opportunity for a screaming match. I guess you're gong after undecideds, not people with Yes on 8 signs in their yards, right? What do you do when you get one of the later? "Thank you very much goodbye"?

yeah4me

Pescalita:

Phonebanking scares me. I've never done it before, but it just seems like an opportunity for a screaming match. I guess you're gong after undecideds, not people with Yes on 8 signs in their yards, right? What do you do when you get one of the later? "Thank you very much goodbye"?

If someone says they are voting yes and they understand what that means (e.g. not "YES" I support gay marriage), then I thank them for their time and hang up. ?I haven't gotten into any screaming matches. ?There's a script, which feels a little forced, but also keeps you out of trouble.

Pescalita

yeah4me:

Pescalita:

Phonebanking scares me. I've never done it before, but it just seems like an opportunity for a screaming match. I guess you're gong after undecideds, not people with Yes on 8 signs in their yards, right? What do you do when you get one of the later? "Thank you very much goodbye"?

If someone says they are voting yes and they understand what that means (e.g. not "YES" I support gay marriage), then I thank them for their time and hang up.  I haven't gotten into any screaming matches.  There's a script, which feels a little forced, but also keeps you out of trouble.

That's much less scary. I'm pretty deathly afraid of speaking to strangers on the phone, but I think I'll look into it.