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BIL fw me an email from his work's weather junkie
and it's freaking me out!
Here are a few excerpts:
He basically says there are 3 main predicted tracks:
1) Irene coming up I-95 (and then going W of NYC), to 2) it coming right up the Garden State Parkway and into NYC, to 3) it coming up 50-75 miles off the Jersey Shore and into Central/Eastern LI; for all these solutions, the intensity would be as a category 1 hurricane in our area (80-90 mph).
The solution up the Parkway is the one that has been getting all the media attention, as that would be similar to the 1821 hurricane that hit both NJ and NYC (the last hurricane to hit NJ was in 1903, although several just missed, but caused extensive damage, like in 1938 and 1944). This is the worst case scenario for most of NJ and NYC.
If we do get the worst case scenario of a cat 1 hurricane coming right up the Parkway, that would likely be the worst storm NJ has seen since the hurricane of 1821, according to the director of the NWS in Mt. Holly, especially given the existing level of saturation of the ground and high levels of water in the rivers, due to earlier heavy rains this month and due to the astronomically high tides that will exacerbate coastal flooding.
if we get the 5-10" (or more) of rain being forecast and the several feet of coastal storm surge forecast, we will likely see the WORST RIVER AND COASTAL FLOODING EVER SEEN IN NJ. This is not hyperbole. Property and businesses will be destroyed or badly damaged and there will likely be injuries and even fatalities. People need to take this seriously.
Yes, the track may change a bit or the storm may under deliver and the impacts will be lessened, but right now the probability of the worst case occurring is not 1 in 25 or or 1 in 100 - we're talking maybe 1 in 3 - odds that are way too high to not prepare for.
So, if you live in a 100 year flood plain (you should know if you do and if you don't consult your town or deed or the FEMA maps, which are available on line) or in a coastal area that has ever seen flooding (elevation of < 10 feet, as a general guide), you really need to think about evacuating your house on Saturday, if it looks like the forecast is going to verify (no need to evacuate before then, really, unless instructed to by the State), but you should at least think about it.
There was a TON more to the email. But that's the basics. Our basement floods every 8-12 mos and I'm sure it will flood with this storm so my day will be spent prepping the basement. Hope everyone is safe this weekend!