August 2006 Weddings
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A Guide for Tonight from MSNBC

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/04/1633024.aspx

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** A viewers guide to tonight: Finally -- Election Day. And perhaps the best way to gauge how McCain and Obama are faring is by following the poll closing times for key states. The first closing times come at 7:00 pm ET for Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Virginia. In particular, if Virginia is called early for Obama, that will be a sign of a possible big night for the Democrats. But if there isn?t an early call, that could be some welcome news for McCain. While Georgia and South Carolina aren?t considered true battleground states, they could also signal how the night is going; in short, these are the landslide indicators: If they?re too close too call early in the night, that will tell us that African-American turnout was HUGE.

In addition, Kentucky?s polls close at 7:00 pm ET, and that will give us some early insight into Mitch McConnell?s political health and whether Democrats might have what it takes to reach 60 Senate seats. (Note: Polls actually close in the Eastern Time Zone parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 pm ET, but the races won?t be called until 7:00 pm, when polls close the Central Time Zone in those states. However, we will see returns start coming in at 6:00 pm.)  

*** From 7:30 to 1:00 a.m.: The next batch of poll closings comes at 7:30 pm ET, for North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. At 8:00 pm ET, polls officially close in Florida (although for most of the state, it?s actually 7:00 pm ET), Missouri, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. If Pennsylvania is called early for Obama, that would be a severe blow to McCain and would force him to hang on to virtually every state that Bush carried in 2004. But keep an eye on the four states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama wins just two out of the four, it becomes nearly impossible for McCain to get to 270 -- even if he wins Pennsylvania. And if Virginia is called for Obama, then it's down to the Iron Triangle of survival for McCain: Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. Add any one of those three to Virginia and it's basically checkmate. So McCain has to win three of those four state. At 9:00 pm ET, polls close in the Western battlegrounds of Colorado and New Mexico. At 10:00 pm ET, polls close for Iowa, Montana, and Nevada. At 11:00 pm ET, polls close in California, and this is important if the night is going especially well for Obama: Because of its 55 electoral votes, probably the earliest that we might see the election called for Obama (i.e., him going crossing the 270 mark) would be at 11:00 pm ET. The last state to close its polls will be Alaska at 1:00 am ET, and that will be a time to check on the status of Ted Stevens? re-election bid. By the way, consider the following: Even in victory, it's possible McCain underperforms Bush in every single state in the Union.

Slainte!
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