Politics & Current Events
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Our tech team has launched updates to The Nest today. As a result of these updates, members of the Nest Community will need to change their password in order to continue participating in the community. In addition, The Nest community member's avatars will be replaced with generic default avatars. If you wish to revert to your original avatar, you will need to re-upload it via The Nest.
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Thank you.
Note: This only affects The Nest's community members and will not affect members on The Bump or The Knot.
State of the Presidential Race
After recent polls, Obama's lead over Mitt Romney in the RealClearPolitics average is the lowest I have ever seen it, .1%. I thought that was very interesting.
If the polling averages in the Senate hold, Republicans will win the Senate 51-49. That takes into account a loss in Maine and five pickups in Montana, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Connecticut (this is based on a very small lead for McMahon).
I know the McMahon lead is small, could be an aberration and might not hold, but I still think that the 51-49 result is plausible because it assumes Senate GOP losses in Virginia and Ohio. I think one of those will be wrong. Kaine's lead is .6%.
"I want the left to know they screwed with the wrong guy."
-This signature may or may not have been selectively edited.
Re: State of the Presidential Race
I must ask....do you teach political science? You are very smart!
No, I teach middle school. Politics is one of my main interests. I check RealClearPolitics every day. For the political races, RCP and Larry Sabato's site Center for Politics are must reads, especially as the election gets closer. I could not take a political sci class in college because I had a double major.
Thank you for the compliment.
On election day, you should definitely listen to Michael Barone on Fox News. He knows the stats behind the districts, especially the swing ones, inside and out and can tell very early if Romney or Obama will win in various states due to how they perform in their strongholds and trouble areas. He could give insight into Ohio and Florida very early in 2004. (I didn't watch tv in 2008, following exclusively on the Internet.)
Besides the Romney-Obama race, there are a few interesting races that I really want to see on Election Day.
Senate---Ohio (Mandel vs. Brown), Wisconsin (Baldwin vs. Thompson), Virginia (Allen vs. Kaine), Montana, Florida
Virginia is a pure tossup.
House---Bachmann's seat in Minnesota; Ohio 16--it's the only pure tossup in Ohio and may mirror the presidential winner, lots of other tossups listed on RCP
*My other interests are Old Hollywood and the Oscars. I have already started following Oscar buzz. I have participated in the Nest Oscar prediction contests (#2 and #3 the last two yrs) and really want to continue until I win. :-)
I am only under the AndrewBreitbart name because I purposefully changed and forgot my password to my real name so I wouldn't post. This one I did remember, though. Even before the April Fools Day with all the AEs, I made it clear who I was.
Thanks, kbmom, I appreciate that.
I agree
Romney got a below average convention bounce. The Presidential election is basically over, Obama has won. I've seen plenty of election maps that have to lump MICHIGAN as a swing state in order to make the race look competitive. Obama is leading in Florida and Ohio. If Romney loses either of those states, he literally cannot win. Virginia and North Carolina are swing states.
Romney's only hope is to radically overspend Obama, but in Presidential elections even spending 50% more than your opponent doesn't usually move the dial that much.
As for the Senate, the most likely outcome is still 51-49 Dem/Independant (Angus King picking up Maine and caucusing with the Dems). The good news is we may see one of the most moderate Senates we've had in years, although most things will still get filibustered.
This is not true. You are highly presumptuous. I don't know how you can look at the swing states that are almost tied and think that the election is over. That is a total overstatement. Romney can get Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Wisconsin and win the presidency, and I believe that he will get at least three. Again, highly presumptuous to say it's over. This is an election more like 2000 and 2004 than 2008.
What states exactly do you see swinging each way to get to the 51-49 Dem edge? Even RCP is 50-50, not 51-49, even if you take away Connecticut for McMahon.
I suggest you check your electoral map again. Romney can lose Ohio and still win if he wins a combination of Iowa/Nevada/Colorado. It is likelier than not that he would fall short, but you cannot say he LITERALLY cannot win unless you are assuming facts not in evidence about the swing states.
Again, I am very interested to know what states you see swinging each way to get to 51-49 Dem. I am taking into account the Angus King seat going Independent (Dem), and even then it's only 50-50 if Scott Brown's seat is lost.
I also want to know the evidence for a more "moderate" Senate. How so?