Politics & Current Events
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Path to Victory
This got lost in the debate post below.
If Romney does not carry Ohio, what is his path to victory? He would have to win every other swing state except New Hampshire to win.
According to CNNs map, that would be:
- Iowa
- Colorado
- Nevada
- Virginia
- North Carolina
- Florida
- Wisconsin
What is his path to victory without Ohio? After I work the polls on election day, I am coming home and seeing who won Ohio and going to bed. Working the polls is a LONG day...I am sure they will tell me when I am dropping off my votes at the board of election who won Ohio like they did in 2008. It was all over with the early votes in before they even counted all the election day votes.
So what am I missing? Its all about Ohio...right?
Re: Path to Victory
I think Ohio is definitely an important swing state, but Romney has a ways to go here. Especially after all the "Right to Work" crap that Governor Kasich tried to pull last year...I think it really turned some independent voters off the Republican Party. I know it really bothered me.
I could be biased here about Ohio's importance, though. *see screenname*
my read shelf:
Is this a valid site? It has numbers for Ohio's counties.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE&rm=full#gid=0
(Assuming he gets Indiana and North Carolina) Romney's path to victory was Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Virginia. Virginia and Florida look closer than Wisconsin and Ohio at this time. Without Ohio, Romney would have to make up 18 electorals---that'd probably be Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire.
There's a disconnect between the national polls, which are closer, and the swing state polls.
Very cool thanks. It is very instructive of the different approaches of the campaign, I think (???). The first message is to vote. The second message is where things go different...I think. The democrats want in person early voting if possible. That has been our main push in Summit county and my understanding in the state as a whole. They feel that people got the absentee ballots last time but did not return them or vote down ballot at a high percentage.
I am a booth worker at the place I vote but I am going to vote early, just because they asked me too. I wonder if this change in strategy will affect turnout? Only time will tell...
Cool site. Thanks!
Ohio will be pretty important. I was born/raised there in North Eastern Ohio near Cleveland (Cleveland Clinic - woot! Debate shout-out from both candidates).
Several points re: Ohio voters
First, you have large populations of manufacturing employees both union and non-union. Second, you have large populations of farmers. Third, large populations of Catholics and other religious groups affected by the health care situation. Fourth, you have a large Jewish population (at least in Cleveland).
I will be interested to see how the fourth group - the Jewish population, votes. Historically, they vote Democratic; however, Obama has not taken a favorable position in support of Israel re: Iran and this is an important point for many Jewish families to consider. He actually refused to meet with Benjamin Netanyahu at the beginning of September. ABC News, Reuters and BBC news all reporting this fact. The Obama Administration stating that "He was too busy."
Israel has been a long standing ally and friend of our nation so why a meet and greet could not happen is beyond weird.
Anyway, I think Ohio is up for grabs. Totally.
Not all of these people will be old enough to vote. I grew up in Cleveland Hts so I thought it would be larger myself.
The demographics of Ohio is what continues to make it a battle ground state, IMO.
This is JulieF, by the way, Jan8. I didn't know if you knew it was. My husband and I are getting up early and voting at our polling place as we usually do. We just like the excitement of getting up and voting. I'm in Stark and vote down the street from my house.
A few polls are tightening in Ohio. I don't know if they're just a post-debate bounce for Romney or not. They had him within one; some had him up by one. This article is interesting. I know there's still time.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-poll-romney-leads-51-48-among-those-certain-to-vote/article/2509947
I linked the wrong article. The one I wanted talked about Republicans narrowing the gap in Ohio early voting and absentee ballot requests. I can't remember where I found it.. If I find it, I will link it.
If the numbers are real and Romney would happen to win Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, assuming he gets NC and IN as I think he will, he still needs the one state. I would rather he lose one of the states I mentioned above than come one state away and fall short just barely. I'd rather not endure the torture of waiting for Colorado and Nevada returns with bated breath.
ok, this is close enough to what I was trying to find. I don't stand behind the "Romney blowout" hyperbole in the title. http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/05/ohios-early-absentee-ballot-requests-and-cleaned-up-voter-rolls-point-to-romney-blowout/#ixzz28RyPPfYm
I heard that Democrats are more likely to vote early, and Republicans are more likely to vote on election day. If it's close going into election day, Romney wins? That's interesting. I read someplace that McCain actually won on election day, but the margin was so huge in early voting that he had no chance of making it up.
McCain did win on election day in Ohio but he was too far behind. At least that is what the Obama Summit County headquarters told me. That is why they are pushing early voting again. The reason why absentee request are down...well they are not even down, but they just are not up at an as high percentage is because they are pushing in person early voting, as oppose to mail in. No one has come out and said it but I think they think Husted is being shady and things can be resolved at the early voting place as oppose to if you mail in you ballot. I am seriously shocked that people at my work (and I work for a huge company in the area) did not know you could vote early as oppose to mail in your ballot. Do they live under a rock? It will be interesting how Ohio plays out...I honestly think Kausich (sp?) may have lost the election for Romney with his union issue.
I know Cuyahoga County and Summit County are setting record in person voting records right now as compared to 2008. This is with the shorter hours and bad location in Summit County. I am not sure about the other counties.
By the way, a good friend of ours won a city council seat in Canton in 2010. It was a close race and he is a democrat. I was really shocked he pulled that off in Canton, in 2010 and he had just moved to the area less than a year before running. I am learning a bit more about Stark county politics through him. Does Canton have a democratic lean but Stark Republican? He even beat the incumbent. It was weird...
This. Kasich screwed the pooch with this IMHO.
And, MommyLiberty, I think Cleveland is the only city in Ohio with a large Jewish population. Here in Cbus, we have Bexley's neighborhoods, but it's small and that's about it. I really don't think the Jewish vote is going to be that much of a deal breaker in Ohio.
Ohio is important because a lot of the state represents a microcosm of America. It's why Columbus is a huge test market for new products too.
my read shelf:
I disagree about Kasich. The left-leaning PPP poll has the highest approval numbers for Kasich since he took office. I didn't see the exact figure, but it must've been higher because on Twitter they noted that it was the highest since he took office and ironic that he was rising as Romney was tanking.
The SB 5 issue is way in the rear-view mirror. I was so mad at Kasich, etc. over it, and now I am ready to vote for him for re-election. If the opponent is Strickland again, he lost any chance I had of voting for him with his screed at the DNC convention. That speech was so harsh and unlike his prior persona.
The post-debate polls have the race in Ohio narrowing. (Rasmussen, WeAskAmerica)
I checked the electoral college map and am glad I did. I was under the impression that if Romney got Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he also needed Wisconsin with its 10 electoral votes. It's not true---Romney only needs any other state. It can be 4 electorals or more, so that could be Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, or Nevada...
I know that it might be hard for him to win all three of Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, but not outside the realm of possibility. The RCP average for Obama in Ohio is now 3 points. At Obama's peak it was around 6.
Nate Silver's interpretations are skewing way way left. It's very unlikely that Obama will win every swing state. The latest polls from Rasmussen and WeAskAmerica, which are post-debate by the way, have Romney within one.
In addition, I checked the PPP poll on Kasich. His approval has had a dramatic turnaround, 44 approval to 40 disapproval, and he leads a generic Democrat by 5 and Strickland by 3.
The current average is taking into account a crazy Obama eight-point lead from the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll that is not only way out there, absolutely 100% unlikely, but also pre-debate.
There's a movement toward Romney with the RCP numbers. Florida's now tied, Virginia is under one. Obviously it's a post-debate bounce of sorts. That was a staggeringly poor performance from Obama, and I have been looking at early voting/absentee numbers where counties are registering way smaller numbers in Dem counties, in some cases double-digit shifts.
This is an interesting interpretation; don't know if it's true...
http://pjmedia.com/blog/ohio-poll-analyst-voter-turnout-modeling-predicts-big-ohio-trouble-for-obama/
http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-shocker-gop-closes-early-voting-gap-boosting-romney/article/2509838#.UG-saq65Qqg
I like the second one better because it shows specific county shifts. Of course, it's early yet.
The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers become even more dramatic.
--Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP - 20 point shift.
--Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP - 18 point shift.
--Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP - 15 point shift.
--Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) - 6 point shift.
--Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM -17 point shift
--Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP - 10 point shift.
--Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP - 23 point shift.
--Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM - 17 point shift.
--Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP - 6 point shift.
--Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP - 16 point shift.
--Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM - 24 point shift.
--Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP - 17 point shift.
--Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP - 27 point shift.
--Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP - 14 point shift.
--Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM - 27 point shift.
-Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP - 11 point shift.
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I'm so nerdy. I looked this up. Initials J.C.?