Politics & Current Events
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How many states do you think are really in play?
I think that there are probably 4 or 5 states in play. How about you?
Probably in hindsight, it will be obvious that some of the states that we view as close really weren't close after all.
"I want the left to know they screwed with the wrong guy."
-This signature may or may not have been selectively edited.
Re: How many states do you think are really in play?
Also, who in this election do you think is really full of crap?
Have to say that I find any optimism about Romney winning Pennsylvania to be misplaced. Isn't going to happen. I also don't think anybody can say for sure that Romney will be a big winner. It's just not borne out by the polls.
I read that if Obama doesn't crack 48 or 50 in the polls, he's not likely to win. I also read that independents are likely to go against him, but what if that is not true in one or two swing states? It's hard to figure out what happens because he's polling around that 47-48% number. Romney is around that number in some states as well.
I'm sick of the national polls being different from the state polls. It's confusing, and I feel like my head's going to explode. I can't wait until the week before the election or maybe the day after the election.
If I had to bet money on the outcome right now, I'd say that Romney will get to 240 or so but not get over the hump in a couple of key states. I'd really rather that happen than Ohio be the sole sticking point.
On the Democratic side, I think that Michigan and Pennsylvania are very likely Obama, whether they're tossup on the RCP map or not.
On the Republican side, I think that North Carolina and Florida will be for Romney. If Florida weren't in the bag for Romney, the campaign would be in big-time panic mode because that's a lot of electoral votes, and even Nate Silver has it in the 70s for Romney right now.
The race will be won or lost in Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin. (maybe NH, NV, Iowa, I don't know)
My gut says 281-257 Obama. *sigh* I can see Romney getting close but not over the hump. The Ohio numbers should've closed faster. The Ohio Poll may change my outlook on that. I get 257 by adding Florida, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, and North Carolina to the McCain states.
How embarrassing that I know this off the top of my head. I told it to my students yesterday when they mentioned that the election might be close. (I have one kid in my class who is really into politics---really wants Obama to win.)
If Romney gets Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, I believe he is at 248. (That makes sense because with Colorado's 9 he'd be at 257.)
So he wins Nevada's 6, Colorado's 9, and Iowa's 6. That's 248 +21 = 269.
When there is a 269-269 tie, the election goes into the House of Representatives. Romney would likely win because the Republicans control the House---not only that but more states and more districts would go for Romney. What would cloud the matter is if the just-elected Congress turned Democrat, but it probably won't, so that's a moot point.
I don't know if representatives would just vote based on party, or if they'd vote based on their district/state vote, but all three ways, Romney's likely to win.
wow, you are good! you must teach political science or something like that. I think it would be crazy if there were a tie.
There are states that are "in play" but unlikely to matter. For example, Virginia. It's in play, but if Obama wins Virginia, he's probably already won the election elsewhere. Pennsylvania is slightly less in play, but it's the same sort of deal; if Mitt wins Penn he's probably already won on other states.
Ohio and Florida are probably 60% of the election. Both are must wins for Mitt, while if Obama loses both he needs to do really really well elsewhere. Iowa is also very legitimately in play and could actually impact the election. Nevada and Colorado are in play, as is Wisconsin. New Hampshire is in play, but is too small to really matter. If you count Virginia in play, I count eight states as "swing" states.
Nebraska and Maine can both split their electoral votes, although it has never happened. Most of the scenarios for a tie I've seen involve Maine splitting it's votes.
Just a hobby... I'm pretty good on the Oscars and politics.
I teach middle school Lang. Arts.
I feel that Florida is a given for Mitt, a done deal. If he didn't have those 29 electorals, his campaign would be in panic mode right now. He can't make up 29; there aren't enough states in play to cover it.
Last I looked, even Nate Silver, who was really late to see the momentum shift, has Florida as dark pink, 70+% likelihood of a Romney victory. It was 75%. II think.
Actually, I read that the Obama campaign may have to make a choice between putting resources in Virginia or Colorado. They're trying to build a firewall in Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. I read that they are thinking that Florida and NC may be gone or at least gone enough that they will reallocate money elsewhere.
also, I heard that Romney is up in PA....not sure if you already mentioned that. All these talks of polls start to blur after awhile
There were rumors last time that Pennsylvania was closing. I would never believe it. I read that Romney might be putting a few resources in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but certainly not much. They're shifting from NC to other blue states that could give them an advantage.
Some electoral maps have these states as swing states: Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Others include Michigan and Pennsylvania based on recent closing of polls. I wouldn't put much stock in that poll that's really close in PA because it was commissioned by a state party.
On the other side, the NBC/WSJ/Marist numbers are looking out of whack on a few of the state races. Way too high for Obama. I didn't see the internals.
I thought that it was the House picking the president and Senate picking the VP, but I could be wrong. I can't imagine the Senate picking the VP not of the president's party.
This article is interesting. An added twist is that it's the newly elected congress that votes not the current congress. I wonder how that works out.
http://davidtorbert.com/2012/06/what-happens-if-the-electoral-college-is-a-269-269-tie/