The election is nearing...who...

catsareniice1

who do you feel is going to win? I made this post two or three weeks ago....just wondering who people think will win now that we are so much closer to ED..

I want to say Romney but I just don't know...

missymo

I will admit to nerves because so much is at stake, but I really think Obama will win. I'm basing this on the things I read, the people I talk to, the early voting leaning WAY democratic, and just the fact that Romney is not appealing to anyone with liberal leanings.  

I think the Republican party has lost a lot of young voters and I hope that is reflected at the polls.  

CoffeeBeen

I'm too superstitious to let myself get too positive or too negative.

ShadyPines920

President O

carlab44

I'm not feeling super confident, but I do think Obama will win.

EllaHella

I feel like it truly is a dead heat with it being anyone's race to loose at this point.

FezzesAreCool

What Ella said.

I don't think Obama has it in the bag, but I also don't think Romney has ingratiated himself very much to the undecideds or wobbling Dems. 

If there weren't SCOTUS appointments coming up, this would be the perfect situation for the third parties to make their move.

AndrewBreitbart

NPR had a report that fewer young people will vote in this election, and the young people who are really excited to vote are Romney supporters.

I don't know if Obama's firewall will hold.  Right now, I see it as 281-257 Obama, and that's with Ohio and Wisconsin for Obama.  If the Ohio and Wisconsin polls go further toward Romney in the next two weeks, I will update my prediction.  I think Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Indiana are Obama 2008 states that will go to Romney this time.  I'm least sure about CO.  They withstood two GOP waves before.

There should be an "Ohio Poll" (U of Cincy or Columbus Dispatch) coming out soon.  Last time, it came out on October 18.

Undecideds in many swing states may go for Romney. He has the advantage among independents in some states. If he hasn't closed the deal and is under 50%, he is in trouble.  Bush barely won in 2004 with an approval rating a few pts. higher than what Obama has now.   An incumbent under 50% is in danger.

scorch

I was just comparing Gallup pols from 10/08 and 10/12.  Obama is currently at the same number that McCain was in 08.  Romney is looking pretty good lately, after the debates.  If I was just going by the polls, I would say Romney.  If I didn't go by the Polls, I would say that this is going to be an extraordinarily, excruciatingly close race.  

I cannot believe its only 2 weeks away. 

missymo

Now that I've seen this, I have no more doubts! Win for Obama!!11!!

http://weeklyworldnews.com/headlines/48671/astrologers-predict-obama-will-win/

(obviously, I'm kidding)  

LuckyDad

Obama should win the electoral vote, barring another terrible debate performance next week. The popular vote will be close. The electoral map just isn't very good for Romney and the Republicans, and that's likely to be true for years to come. In a close race, when in doubt, it's safer to bet on the incumbent.

vlagrl29

I honestly can't say for sure.  DH thinks it will be a landslide for romney.  He always brings up Jimmy Carter's re-election and how they said it was going to be really close but it was not.  

FezzesAreCool

vlagrl29:

I honestly can't say for sure.  DH thinks it will be a landslide for romney.  He always brings up Jimmy Carter's re-election and how they said it was going to be really close but it was not.  

I don't recall Iran taking American hostages in the last year or so and holding them for 400+ days, so it's not an apt comparison. 

vlagrl29

FezzesAreCool:

vlagrl29:

I honestly can't say for sure.  DH thinks it will be a landslide for romney.  He always brings up Jimmy Carter's re-election and how they said it was going to be really close but it was not.  

I don't recall Iran taking American hostages in the last year or so and holding them for 400+ days, so it's not an apt comparison. 

 

I know, tell DH that.  I always have to bring him down to reality 

Hopeforthebest

If my candidate doesn't win, I hope it is a landslide the other way. I can not deal with another election cycle of hanging chads/too close to call/lawyers-suing/etc.

 

AndrewBreitbart

scorch:

I was just comparing Gallup pols from 10/08 and 10/12.  Obama is currently at the same number that McCain was in 08.  Romney is looking pretty good lately, after the debates.  If I was just going by the polls, I would say Romney.  If I didn't go by the Polls, I would say that this is going to be an extraordinarily, excruciatingly close race.  

I cannot believe its only 2 weeks away. 

I agree.  Obama is also behind where Bush was in 2004, if you look at several measures.  It's hard to figure out what's going on because there's a disconnect between the state and national polls.

I'd rather the victory not be by one state.