Politics & Current Events
catsareniice1
member
Dear Community,
Our tech team has launched updates to The Nest today. As a result of these updates, members of the Nest Community will need to change their password in order to continue participating in the community. In addition, The Nest community member's avatars will be replaced with generic default avatars. If you wish to revert to your original avatar, you will need to re-upload it via The Nest.
If you have questions about this, please email help@theknot.com.
Thank you.
Note: This only affects The Nest's community members and will not affect members on The Bump or The Knot.
Our tech team has launched updates to The Nest today. As a result of these updates, members of the Nest Community will need to change their password in order to continue participating in the community. In addition, The Nest community member's avatars will be replaced with generic default avatars. If you wish to revert to your original avatar, you will need to re-upload it via The Nest.
If you have questions about this, please email help@theknot.com.
Thank you.
Note: This only affects The Nest's community members and will not affect members on The Bump or The Knot.
So confused with these polls!!
The polls are all over the place. I just want the election to be over. It can't come fast enough!!!
I thought Romney was going to win now I don't know what to think...
Re: So confused with these polls!!
Just acknowledge that things will continue to bounce around as the candidates get their final adwhorings out of the way, and stop looking at polls/reporting on polls/legitimate media/illegitimate media. In fact, stay away from TV and internet in general. On November 7th*, tune in and be amazed.
Voila.
Sanity preserved.
*provided no one pulls a Florida 2000 this year
Like pp said, things go up and down. And some polls are more recent than others. A few days can make a world of difference in October. Some bumps are temporary, some prove to be longer trends.
Plus, now that it's crunch time people are taking more polls and previously undecideds are deciding, and previous decided are undecided again. Take a look at how much variation there's been the past 2 months compared to the last year: http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12
And that's just the popular vote, any individual bump in any individual swing state could have a huge impact on the election itself.
Start paying attention to Ohio's Absentee Ballot initiative.
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/article/279458/6/Absentee-ballots-could-hang-up-Ohios-results
Just mailed in my Ohio absentee ballot, so don't blame me!
I appreciate that Ohio is (supposedly) trying to make voting more convenient for residents, in making absentee voting available for any and everyone without a given reason. But due to this kind of nonsense, I think they would really benefit from just further expanding early voting hours across the state instead. And now, even that initiative has turned into a giant clusterf***.
How I love my state.
You must be new to poll watching. It's ok, we were all noobs once.
We're coming to the point in the cycle where polling becomes a lot more regular. It's also the point where local news organizations jump into the polling game which is dominated for most of the election cycle by the Big Boys. Some of these local news organizations can do great work polling races that otherwise get no attention. Sometimes they put out polls with truly different numbers.
We're also starting to see voters who spent most of the cycle as undecideds begin to have an idea who they plan to vote for. However, voters who spend most of the cycle undecided are the most likely to be willing to change their vote, which is probably part of the increased volatility.
The biggest inconsistency in the polls right now is the divergence of the national poll number, which seems to favor Romney ever so slightly (although probably statistically tied) and the statewide polls of swing states, where Obama appears to have a healthy lead. It is unusual for actual election results to diverge quite as much as the polls are suggesting we're currently seeing.
Romney was probably briefly in the lead after the first debate but that bump has significantly eroded at this point. Based on the probable electoral map Obama is probably a 2:1 favorite right now. The picture should become clearer and clearer as election day approaches.