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Join the election poll
This could be an interesting competition if you would like to participate. I will calculate the results. Choose whom you think will win. You get a point for each correct answer, but you can also have two "big bets": one for two points, one for five points.
Presidential Election
Romney or Obama?
Ohio
Nevada
Colorado
Iowa
Wisconsin
Iowa
North Carolina
Virginia
Florida
New Hampshire
Senate Races
Arizona Flake or Carmona?
Connecticut McMahon or Murphy?
Florida Mack or Nelson?
Indiana Mourdock or Donnelly?
Massachusetts Brown or Warren?
Missouri Akin or McCaskill?
Montana Rehberg or Tester?
Nebraska Fischer or Kerrey?
Nevada Heller or Berkley?
North Dakota Berg or Heitkamp?
Ohio Mandel or Brown?
Pennsylvania Smith or Casey? (note: this was edited; Casey's the Dem)
Virginia Allen or Kaine?
Wisconsin Thompson or Baldwin?
(I listed R candidates first for consistency.)
Let me know if there's any other Senate race I should add.
Re: Join the election poll
I'll probably fill this out next Monday night. (I know this is really nerdy.)
The tiebreaker will be the final electoral college tally.
Nerdy or not, I will play.
Let me sit down with it tonight!
I wouldn't do it that early. There's still a week, and U of Cincy or Columbus Dispatch may have their Ohio poll.
I'd look at the last national tracking polls and state polls. It's so weird that Romney made that 47% comment, and in three separate tracking polls Obama's stuck at 47%. I heard that if an incumbent's at 48%, it's at least possible that he can win. Any lower than that, and it is less likely. Bush barely won, and I think his number was 49.4% in 2004.
Check your pm.
Nevada - Obama
Colorado - Obama
Iowa - Obama
Wisconsin - Obama
North Carolina - Romney
Virginia - Obama
Florida - Romney
New Hampshire - Obama
I am going to fill this in, at least a few, and I might change a few of these before I lock them in on election eve. On Monday night or Tuesday morning, I'll click quote on all the posts and type "locked in" underneath it, just so there can be no changes. (not that there would be)
Romney 275-263
Jeni, I added Ohio.
Thanks, I'll fix the Casey/Smith listing.
No, you can enter as late as Monday evening or early Tuesday morning----just not far enough into Tuesday where there would be election news, news of turnout, etc. 7 should be the latest on Tues. morning.
I won't be around to "lock it in" during the school day.
You can't do the "big bet" for an overall pick of Obama, only individual races. Sorry.
Cool, thanks for doing this! Someone creative should come up with an awesome siggy prize.
I am not as optimistic as I was early in the week, but I can't decide which of the swing states I want to change... so I probably will not change any.
---No, I changed my mind. I think Sandy changed the narrative so completely that we are going to get our asses kicked, and I might not even watch the returns.
Obama.
Ohio - Obama
Nevada - Obama
Colorado - Obama
Iowa - Obama
Wisconsin - Obama
North Carolina - Romney
Virginia - Obama
Florida - Romney
New Hampshire - Obama
Senate Races
Arizona: Flake
Connecticut: Murphy Big Bet 2
Florida: Nelson (the one state where I think the Senate and Prez will split)
Indiana: Mourdock
Massachusetts: Warren Big Bet 5
Missouri: McCaskill
Montana: Rehberg
Nebraska: Fischer
Nevada: Berkley
North Dakota: Berg
Ohio: Brown
Pennsylvania: Casey
Virginia Kaine
Wisconsin: Baldwin
Electoral Total: Obama 303 Romney 235
I'm obviously expecting the Dems to have a fairly big night, although the ones I was least sure on I went with the Republicans (Florida Prez, Montana Sen, Indiana Sen), except the Virginia races. It definitely looks like Virginia and Ohio will be bellwethers for how the rest of the night will go.
I'm really wavering, so my list may be updated several times before Monday night.
Locked In
You have Iowa twice on your list
I'm also loving the fact that I, a Democrat, think the Republican will win in Indiana Senate, while AndrewBrietbart, a Republican, thinks the Democrat will win in Indiana for the Senate!
Here we go...
Presidential Election
Romney or Obama?
Ohio - Obama
Nevada - Obama
Colorado - Obama
Iowa - Obama
Wisconsin - Obama - Big bet #2
Iowa - Obama (x2?)
North Carolina - Romney
Virginia - Romney
Florida - Romney
New Hampshire - Obama
Senate Races
Arizona Flake or Carmona? - Flake
Connecticut McMahon or Murphy? - Murphy
Florida Mack or Nelson? - Nelson
Indiana Mourdock or Donnelly? - Donnelly
Massachusetts Brown or Warren? - Warren
Missouri Akin or McCaskill? - McCaskill - Big bet #1
Montana Rehberg or Tester? - Rehberg
Nebraska Fischer or Kerrey? - Fischer
Nevada Heller or Berkley? - Heller
North Dakota Berg or Heitkamp? - Berg
Ohio Mandel or Brown? - Brown
Pennsylvania Smith or Casey? - Casey
Virginia Allen or Kaine? - Kaine
Wisconsin Thompson or Baldwin? - Baldwin
Locked in
(I would cut and paste it, but when I do it shows them all jumbled together)
Locked in plus Ohio-Obama
Florida hasn't been called yet.
hey now - I think we are tied! Don't you try to steal this election! Although, I will be happy if Romney loses Florida, even though I projected him to win.
I did a count, since I worry Andrew is too bummed out to worry about this silly game. We all agreed on Florida, so it won't affect the totals.
There were 4 complete entries along with Jeni's partial entry. Jeni didn't put down big bets, but she got all the results correct except Florida, which will probably go to Obama, making us all wrong.
The scores:
AndrewBreitbart: 20 points (16/24 correct picks, including missing a heartbreaking 2x big bet)
LuckyDad: 24 points (19/24 correct picks)
CoffeeBeen: 25 points (20/24 correct picks)
and the winner...
MissyMo: 26 points (21/24 correct picks)
Congrats to MissyMo! The difference maker was Virginia, where she correctly picked Barrack Obama!