Politics & Current Events
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Re: Romney up 2 points in Ohio
LOL you don't cite Rasmussen as a legit standalone polling source. That's like me coming on and citing the CNN poll from a few days ago that said Obama was up 4 points in Ohio like it meant anything.
Stick to averages. Individual polling sources tend to be traditionally skewed in either direction.
Seems like a bit of an aberration.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
The internals in the poll are interesting.
There was also the Ohio Newsppaer poll that had it tied... and I don't think those polls had to resort to an unworkable polling sample that assumed Democrats would turn out MORE than in 2008 and Republicans less.
That's about as legit as me saying Obama is up 1 point in Florida...
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac0d63ea-75f1-42aa-ba9c-e6955f64c76b
Maybe, but you are selectively choosing the poll that is in Romney's favor. According to Real Clear Politics, of the top 10 polls in Ohio 1 (the Rasmussen) shows Romney ahead by 2 points, 2 polls show a tie, and 7 polls show Obama ahead by 1-5 points.
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Rasmussen is more useful for spotting trends and comparing Rasmussen to Rasmussen. Their in-house likely voter model assumes very robust Republican turn out which is why their actual numbers tend to be divergent. I actually respect their "go for broke" attitude, although I generally subtract 2% from the R side for every poll they put out.
This is a slight uptick for Romney in terms of apples-to-apples comparisons, since the last Rasmussen Report had it at a 48-48 tie. Ohio really is looking like it could go either way and very well may not be called until late in the night, which is very different than what I expected a week or so ago.
which is pretty much why I posted the link. since everyone thought ohio is a given for obama
I'm not saying that it's an unfair source, I'm saying that the average of all polls tends to be more accurate than any single poll. And the one you chose was the most divergent - you don't usually bet on the outlier.
Absentee ballot requests for Dems are way down in Ohio. A lot of the Republican-leaning counties are way up. I read that McCain actually won on election day; he just didn't have the advantage from the early voting, where Obama has a huge lead.
Based on the numbers on the absentee ballot spreadsheet, I feel that Romney has a good chance to gain Ohio. He certainly has the momentum. The Ohio poll is within the state, close to the voters, and has it dead even at 49, with Obama losing five points from last month. In most polls he's losing independents as well.
A few of the 4 and 5-point leads for Obama come from polls where the sampling spread is dubious at best.
Couple of questions. Aren't absentee ballots typically used by college students, or deployed militay personnel - both younger and more likely to be Obama voters?
The other question is, how do people get this information? You have to disclose your affiliation to get a ballot? That just seems wrong.
No, you don't have to disclose party affiliation, but if I understand it correctly, they keep track of who voted in which party's primary and base stats like this on those figures.
Here's a great site for electoral college poll results:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct30.html#News
I'm not saying that what they present is right or wrong, but it's well-presented and explained well.
Any qualified Ohio voter whose registration information is up to date may request and vote an absentee ballot without stating a reason.
What?s being tracked are absentee/early ballot REQUESTS, not turned-in ballots. Ohio does not require you state a party affiliation upon registration. All that is know is which Party?s members are asking for ballots and party affiliation is garnered from past voting history. I believe based on who you voted for in the Presidential Primary.