Politics & Current Events
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Our tech team has launched updates to The Nest today. As a result of these updates, members of the Nest Community will need to change their password in order to continue participating in the community. In addition, The Nest community member's avatars will be replaced with generic default avatars. If you wish to revert to your original avatar, you will need to re-upload it via The Nest.
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Most to Least Reliable Polls (2008)
"I want the left to know they screwed with the wrong guy."
-This signature may or may not have been selectively edited.
Re: Most to Least Reliable Polls (2008)
Thanks! Hope you don't leave. I enjoy seeing your posts.
vlag, I don' think anyone believes you can't use a republican leaning source, I think that they want you to consider the context. If 5 polls say "x" and your 1 poll says "y" then it's weird to assume the result is "y" and discount the other 5.
I think you should also realize that 2008 results don't say much about 2012 polls. We know that Rasmussen is a valid poll, but it may or may not be amongst the most accurate this time around.
I agree with this. In the reading that I've been doing here and in general, it is recommended to take an average of a bunch of polls, not just one or two.
Vlag - I like that poll result too
Calculations in this Initial Report were done using an ESTIMATE of a 6.15 Obama winning margin. However, when all the votes were tallied, Obama ACTUALLY won by a 7.2 margin.
Fordham later released a complete analysis based on the official popular vote count for 2008. http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/2008 poll accuracy panagopoulos.pdf
It's also extremely dangerous to base reliability strictly off one election.
I believe Nate Silver's model looks at all the data it can when giving a pollster a weight. For example, special elections and primaries add data to consider.
Who do you think will win electoral votes?
I posted my election predictions on AndrewBreitbart's thread. At this point I don't even see the Electoral count being all that close. I think the popular vote is gonna be tight though. It's actually feasible Romney will lose the electoral vote but win the popular vote. That might be the final nail in the coffin for the Electoral College. Democrats are still mad about Bush v. Gore, and having a second election in less than 15 years be flipped by the electoral college is likely to really stir the pot.
I don't even have to read the link or this thread to know that this is going to show that the polls showing Republicans/Romney winning are the most accurate while anything showing Democrats/Obama winning must be inaccurate.
Am I right?