2014 Economy

catsareniice1 · January 2014

Do you think the economy in 2014 will finally improve, stay the same or get worse?

hoffse · January 2014

I mean... the economy improved a lot in 2013. I saw an article today saying it was the S&P's best year since 1997. And the best year for other index funds since the mid-90's.

Who knows what will happen in 2014, but the last several years have actually been pretty great from a market standpoint.

cinderin · January 2014

I agree with the PP, it has been improving.

I expect it will continue to improve. All signs point to expected continued growth/improvement.

catsareniice1 · January 2014

I don't see it. Businesses in my area are hurting more than ever. Unemployment is very high too.

hoffse · January 2014

OP I hate to say this because it's something people don't like to hear, but the boom and bust of businesses is part of market growth and change. So is job turnover. It has to happen for the economy to stay viable, because a major part of economic growth is staying innovative and improving efficiency. My law firm is shutting down in 2 months after almost 90 years of being in business, and it's going to make a lot of people unemployed. It sucks, it's emotional, but it was necessary from a business standpoint. It didn't just happen - things were mismanaged, the firm failed to respond to changing client demands (flat fees, better technology, etc.) and here we are.

I'm about to move to a firm that HAS responded to the economy - about 60% of their work is now done with flat fees, and they have invested thousands of dollars in technology and marketing to make their attorneys cutting edge. The old codgers who hate learning new technology have basically been told to shove it because it's what clients want. The result? Since 2008 that firm has tripled its annual billings.

My old firm shutting down vs. my new firm being wildly successful is what we call progress. Even if there is a lot of collateral damage.

There are many indicators to show that the economy has improved a LOT. Are we back to the glory days of pre-2008? No. But those days were in the midst of a bubble, as you know. We don't WANT to get back there, because it carried with it a big false sense of security.

Wulfgar · January 2014

I agree with @hoffse, since about the mid-1990's we have been in one bubble or another giving the economy a false since of growth etc. Also, during this time we had a lot of people living beyond their means though major debt. That all came to a stop in 2008 with the housing bubble burst.

In some areas that are more service orientated, they are being hit really bad. Also, depending on job training etc, depends on how well people land jobs. In my area, most engineers tend to be unemployed less than 26 weeks especially if they are willing to take a small step down when moving from one company to another.

catsareniice1 · January 2014

I agree with most of what other posters are saying. I guess I am referring to local business. I should have made a different thread title.

My accountant said he has never seen so many businesses do as poorly as they are now. I know six people who have local businesses. Four will most likely be closing within this year and the other two are just hanging on....barely.

My friends are saying that online is murdering their businesses. People are simply not supporting local stores then wonder why the cute little store down the street is gone. Online is a convenient way to shop but people (who have the time to shop) are not thinking of the destruction they are causing to local job employment in their communities by not supporting local shops.

Xstatic3333 · January 2014

I have noticed the trend you are talking about, OP. I think that's a separate issue from overall economic growth, but it is one that I worry about. I try to support local businesses and farmers when I can (I'm not as strict about it as some-as I've mentioned I love Target) but it's tough sometimes. Last year I was able to go all-local with my Christmas presents, but this year it just wasn't possible with what people wanted. I also try to support local businesses I like by giving good word of mouth, Yelp reviews, etc.

catsareniice1 · January 2014

catsareniice1 said:

I agree with most of what other posters are saying. I guess I am referring to local business. I should have made a different thread title.
My accountant said he has never seen so many businesses do as poorly as they are now. I know six people who have local businesses. Four will most likely be closing within this year and the other two are just hanging on....barely.
My friends are saying that online is murdering their businesses. People are simply not supporting local stores then wonder why the cute little store down the street is gone. Online is a convenient way to shop but people (who have the time to shop) are not thinking of the destruction they are causing to local job employment in their communities by not supporting local shops.

That's very kind of you. More people need to think before they buy items as opposed to just sitting and randomly Googling God knows who or a large company. I think supporting a local Target store is still great because you are employing local workers. If you use a self checkout line then not so much.....I avoid those at ALL costs!

brij2006 · January 2014

Overall I feel that the economy is beginning to shift to a better place. Although, we live in a very rural, blue collar area, and finally started seeing the affects a year ago. Local businesses are closing their doors, and our unemployment rate is at the highest in the state. But like hoffse explained, a lot of those businesses are ones who refused to make change and keep up with the demands. Unfortunately it's all a part of, the law of economics.

catsareniice1 · January 2014

brij2006 said:

Overall I feel that the economy is beginning to shift to a better place. Although, we live in a very rural, blue collar area, and finally started seeing the affects a year ago. Local businesses are closing their doors, and our unemployment rate is at the highest in the state. But like hoffse explained, a lot of those businesses are ones who refused to make change and keep up with the demands. Unfortunately it's all a part of, the law of economics.

These businesses I am speaking about have made major changes. People are simply NOT walking into small stores. It's awfully sad.

hoffse · January 2014

Yes, it's sad, but it's also where the marketplace is going. Small businesses have to be able to keep up with what consumers demand if they want to stay viable. And consumers demand online shopping. They demand fewer overhead costs. They demand a smaller profit margin so that prices go down. They demand free or reduced shipping and frequent sales. It's not a secret - EVERYBODY should have seen this coming as soon as Amazon became a thing. That was years ago.

As much as I would like to support local businesses, they often require a price premium that I'm just not willing to pay as a consumer. A good example is all the wedding gifts I've been buying recently. All the girls in my area register at Macy's and at a local china shop. The local shop is fun to browse, but it always ALWAYS costs at least 30% more than Macy's. Sorry, but I'm not doing that. The local shop does have a nice website, and they have good customer service, but my dollar will go much further at Macy's so that's where I go.

Most consumers are like me. I would love to support local. And if my local china shop could reduce overhead to the point that I could shop there for about the same price as Macy's, I would go there instead. But they haven't been able to do that, so they lose my business.

hoffse · January 2014

I should add - I do support local businesses when they make sense. For instance, I buy most of my meat from a local butcher. Why? Because his meat is better than whole foods/fresh market and he costs less. He rents space in this out of the way old strip mall and the interior of the building looks like it hasn't been updated since about the 70's. But the man does a roaring business. H and I called in an order for a couple of steaks a few days before xmas and waited in line for 45 min because of all the people who were there. And he did have at least 8 guys working the counter. It was ridiculous. Also - by supporting that butcher I support local farmers who sell to him. I'm more than happy to do that because his prices are right and his product is excellent.

The china shops? Rents space in the most expensive square mile of the city. The $2M+ houses are walking distance from this place. The people that shop there do so to make a point to show that they can afford it. It's always ALWAYS empty because it caters to a clientele that is dwindling. Saving money has become trendy, and places like that are going to suffer as a result.

maple2 · January 2014

In terms of the more general conversation about the economy, I think things will continue to improve using metrics like market growth, but market growth does not translate into a better economic situation for everyone. The growing economic inequality in this country makes it possible for there to be positive economic growth indicators that in actuality only benefit a minority of people while many others are still facing economic hardship. I don't see any real momentum in this country to address inequality, so I think the economic forecast for 2014 is going to be very different for different people.

In terms of local businesses, we are pretty lucky to still have quite a few in our community. In the poorer, more rural areas where much of my extended family lives, a lot of local businesses have closed because they can't compete with Walmart.

Xstatic3333 · January 2014

It's true-I can never judge anyone for making their most affordable choice. I travel in somewhat "crunchy" circles, and in both Boston and Providence there are movements of sorts of people drumming up support for local businesses. Personally, I will also choose the most affordable option for things available multiple places. I can support local, however, when I find interesting gifts at local boutiques. I can also support local with my food choices. Eating mostly organic and sustainable is something we want to do anyway (again, I totally respect that it's not for everybody) and it's much cheaper to get that kind of food from the source than from Whole Foods.

I'm not a big online shopper for routine purchases. I did use Etsy a lot for my wedding, though. That's not shopping local, but I did like that my money was supporting small businesses and I was always happy with the products I received. That said, I think there are many vendors on Etsy that seem like big business in disguise.

vlagrl29 · January 2014

I feel it's getting better for us. I hear it from my mom all the time about how the economy sucks but for what DH and I are doing (freelancing photography and music) it's getting much better. 2013 was great for us! So, I'm hoping 2014 is even better.

vlagrl29 · January 2014

regarding the stock market....the feds have been pumping money into it since the economy was really bad and I just heard this week that they will slowly stop dumping money into it since the economy is slowly getting better. That's the only part that kinda worries me I guess, but we won't be retiring for a long time so I'm sure these dips will happen lots over the next 30 or so years.

vlagrl29 · January 2014

catsareniice1 said:

I don't see it. Businesses in my area are hurting more than ever. Unemployment is very high too.

If you don't mind me asking what part of the US are you in.....and totally off topic I saw a special on TV about how CO will be allowing recreational pot use and it was crazy to see all those plants being grown. I'm guessing CO will be doing very well this year with all the taxing of weed and new jobs.

vlagrl29 · January 2014

I also have been shopping more online why? Amazon has prime and no tax for us so it's much cheaper. I've been buying my hair products from them as well as lots of xmas gifts. I have a toddler and it's a nightmare shopping with her most days so if I can have something delivered to my home I'm going to do it. I do shop the local farmers market when its in season.

Sisugal · January 2014

Well, the economy is so great that we are needing to extend unemployment benefits for 100 weeks - again. The U6 numbers are terrible (those not counted in the unemployment weekly numbers as they have exhausted their benefits or stopped looking for a job.
Although aspects of the economy have inched upward, most of the visible changes have been on Wall Street (yeah, my retirement acct.)
I see VERY slow growth in 2014 if any at all. Many people will pay more for their health care, have increased tax burden, interest rates will continue upward, housing will cost more, food likewise. If you live in the DC corridor - life is great (you never saw the real recession hit home ) and a few places on the west coast are OK - butl.fly-over country still struggles and has a long way to go.

vlagrl29 · January 2014

Sisugal said:

Well, the economy is so great that we are needing to extend unemployment benefits for 100 weeks - again. The U6 numbers are terrible (those not counted in the unemployment weekly numbers as they have exhausted their benefits or stopped looking for a job.
Although aspects of the economy have inched upward, most of the visible changes have been on Wall Street (yeah, my retirement acct.)
I see VERY slow growth in 2014 if any at all. Many people will pay more for their health care, have increased tax burden, interest rates will continue upward, housing will cost more, food likewise. If you live in the DC corridor - life is great (you never saw the real recession hit home ) and a few places on the west coast are OK - butl.fly-over country still struggles and has a long way to go.

wow, they are doing this again. They did this back in 2008/09. I thought they went back to the standard 26 weeks.

catsareniice1 · January 2014

No....I am talking about local businesses who are even LESS expensive than these large companies for the same EXACT item. I am talking about people not bothering to check with local first.

I know of someone local who sells SUPER fresh nuts and other gourmet items. She has people come in to her store all the time saying..."Oh I wish I noticed your prices but we just bought online. I didn't even think of you." This is what I am talking about.

Cases like this when the prices are extremely competitive and the selection IS broad yet people do not even bother TRYING to support local. It's not even a thought and many times the customer pays more online (not always, of course). Amazon is more expensive on many items sold in some local stores of people I know.

catsareniice1 · January 2014

People are becoming too impatient and almost HYPER focused on convenience to the point that it's all about what is better for them as opposed to the community. People are becoming selfish.

Personally, I refuse to use self checkout at stores. They are taking jobs away from people. Sad that people can even stand in a f#ckin line for a bit. Seriously, if you go shopping you need to budget waiting a few minutes in line. Besides, half the time using a cashier is faster than checking your own merchandise out. We are causing our own problems. People need to stop being so self centered and smarten the f#ck up!

Xstatic3333 · January 2014

I share your frustration, but I don't think that sort of human behavior will change unless Amazon Prime gets rid of free shipping. For people who have gotten in the habit of using it for staples, the convenience factor is huge. For your friend, I bet she's been hurt by nuts.com, which my health nut friends use like crazy. I believe their shipping is also very cheap. I'm sorry so many of your friends are going through this. I think the small stores to survive will be the ones with location-based convenience (high traffic walking areas, hardware store at a busy commuter intersection), luxe clothing boutiques, and hobby specialty stores.

I am sorry for your business-owner friends who are going through this. It must be awful.

catsareniice1 · January 2014

It is awful. Personally, even IF a small businesses' items cost a bit more I would still buy from them (no money and all).

People need to get a clue, if money is spent within their community they will eventually reap the benefits. Oh and their nuts are not nearly as fresh as hers.

And, you want to know what is laughable?....when people ask if she is hiring AFTER telling her they bought online. Umm no because of people like you. Well, she says, "No. Online sales have hurt us so we can't hire."

catsareniice1 · January 2014

They are getting free ship but their prices are not always cheaper. And, like I said why the f are people not helping their community. It should be viewed as a donation even if it's a tad more, ya know?

catsareniice1 · January 2014

And, let's fast forward @ 10 years from now....people are going to wish stores were still around to browse in. They will be left we Target, Walmart and MAYBE a couple other stores and will be dumb enough to complain about it LOL

bparkhur · January 2014

catsareniice1 said:

They are getting free ship but their prices are not always cheaper. And, like I said why the f are people not helping their community. It should be viewed as a donation even if it's a tad more, ya know?

For me, it comes down to toting two young children around. It's much easier for me to purchase what I need online, avoid the south florida traffic, save on gas money, and prevent toddler meltdowns.

Morally, I 100% believe in supporting small businesses, but it not a practical decision all of the time.

Sisugal · January 2014

vlagrl29 -- the unemployment for 100 weeks has been repeatedly extended since the original legislation. The official line is that the economy is improving, and the Fed is tapering its bond buying - -- but we still have a huge number of long term unemployed.

catsareniice1 · January 2014

bparkhur said:

catsareniice1 said:

They are getting free ship but their prices are not always cheaper. And, like I said why the f are people not helping their community. It should be viewed as a donation even if it's a tad more, ya know?

For me, it comes down to toting two young children around. It's much easier for me to purchase what I need online, avoid the south florida traffic, save on gas money, and prevent toddler meltdowns.
Morally, I 100% believe in supporting small businesses, but it not a practical decision all of the time.

Oh I agree. There are definitely situations. My point is along the lines that some people don't even try. Also, some local businesses may offer delivery.

vlagrl29 · January 2014

Sisugal said:

vlagrl29 -- the unemployment for 100 weeks has been repeatedly extended since the original legislation. The official line is that the economy is improving, and the Fed is tapering its bond buying - -- but we still have a huge number of long term unemployed.

well, it needs to get back to the 26 weeks. I guess maybe the unemployment number is getting lower because of those that can no longer collect it and have given up on finding jobs.

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