Election predictions

hoffse · January 2016

Alright, I don't want to get too political, but I'm interested to hear who you all think will be the candidates and who will win - not necessarily who you will vote for (let's not ruin the vibe of the board).

At this point I really think it will be Trump v. Clinton... and then Bloomberg will run as a third party candidate. I think Clinton will win, but I think Bloomberg will do better than anybody anticipates at this point, and that will result in the Republican party splintering. Maybe we'll actually get a viable third party out of this circus.

What are your predictions?

dragonstarjk · January 2016

I think it will either be Trump or Cruz v. Clinton. I agree that a third party candidate could splinter the Republican voters, resulting in a Clinton win.

hoffse · January 2016

Yeah I've wondered about Cruz. The Republican party really despises both Trump and Cruz, so I could see them pushing a third party candidate forward just out of desperation.

AprilZ81 · January 2016

A lot of this will depend on if/when Hillary gets indicted over her email server and using email to discuss highly classified information. I find it very interesting that with all of the "scandals" (depending on your opinion of her) that she is still so high in the polls. I recently read an article that 76% of survey respondents would describe Hillary as dishonest. I don't know who they polled so it is likely that they could have surveyed conservatives to have a number that high.

Regardless, I'm surprised that she is polling so high and expected to win the nomination. If she is not indicted I think she will be the nominee. If she is it becomes more of a toss up because I doubt she would stop campaigning but it might move more people to Bernie.

On the Republican side I don't think Trump will actually be the nominee. I don't think Trump will do well in the caucus states and the early primary results usually help the undecided voters make up their mind. I think his numbers will start to fall.

Cruz is hated by the establishment, but I don't see that as a bad thing. (Conservative speaking here). I think he is conservative enough to appeal to the far right base and likable enough to possibly appeal to moderates but he may too far right for that.

Rubio is up there but while he is articulate, young and handsome I think he is too easily swayed by popular opinion. He really does flip flop on the issues and the base will call him out on it.

A conservative third party candidate would hand the election to the Democrats by a landslide.

smerka · January 2016

First you should come over to the Politics board. It is generally pretty civil. I think Bloomberg has said he will only run if it is Bernie vs Trump or Cruz. So I am kind of hoping that will happen because I like Bloomberg more than the other three. Clinton is too swarmy for my tastes

hoffse · January 2016

I really don't think she's going to get indicted. A lot of that is at the discretion of whoever would prosecute her, and I just don't see that happening.

On the flip side, if I'm wrong and it does happen, I think it will be after she gets the nomination. That would derail things in a really crazy way.

Intellectually I think it would be really interesting to see Bernie/Trump race, if only because they are so different in many ways but so similar in others. It would really be the first election in ages where special interest money just doesn't do much. Bernie is above it and Trump is too rich to care.

I don't know about Cruz being likeable. From what I've read about him personally, it sounds like virtually nobody likes him after they meet him. That's bad news for a president. Slightly off topic, but the tweets about him from his college roommate were some of the funniest things I've read on the internet in a long time.

hoffse · January 2016

smerka said:

First you should come over to the Politics board. It is generally pretty civil. I think Bloomberg has said he will only run if it is Bernie vs Trump or Cruz. So I am kind of hoping that will happen because I like Bloomberg more than the other three. Clinton is too swarmy for my tastes

I might have to do that! I've never looked over there because I was too scared of what I would find, lol.

AprilZ81 · January 2016

hoffse said:

I really don't think she's going to get indicted. A lot of that is at the discretion of whoever would prosecute her, and I just don't see that happening.

On the flip side, if I'm wrong and it does happen, I think it will be after she gets the nomination. That would derail things in a really crazy way.

Intellectually I think it would be really interesting to see Bernie/Trump race, if only because they are so different in many ways but so similar in others. It would really be the first election in ages where special interest money just doesn't do much. Bernie is above it and Trump is too rich to care.

I don't know about Cruz being likeable. From what I've read about him personally, it sounds like virtually nobody likes him after they meet him. That's bad news for a president. Slightly off topic, but the tweets about him from his college roommate were some of the funniest things I've read on the internet in a long time.

Without getting too political I think Clinton SHOULD be indicted. She had information so classified in her emails that the committee (Senate I think, could be wrong) couldn't even read them. There were all kinds of laws regarding classified information that were broken, plus handing government business on a private email (illegal), plus the possibility of using her role as Sec. of State to raise funds for the Clinton foundation. All that being said I don't think anyone in Washington has the balls to actually indict her.

als1982 · January 2016

The thought of either Trump or Cruz as President is terrifying. I don't feel as strongly about Hillary as I did about Obama, but I prefer her over Sanders. I do wish Elizabeth Warren would have run. I have a mad girl crush on her!

csuave · January 2016

I think it will be Clinton and Rubio. Not sure who would win out of those two, probably Clinton.

Xstatic3333 · January 2016

I do think that Trump will be the Republican nominee. I really don't see what is stopping him at this point. He's done every possible thing to turn people against him, and he's still crushing it in the polls. I can see some scenarios where Cruz does well enough in Iowa and another early state or two to pull some of the anti-establishment people off of Trump and make a space for Rubio to work his way in there.

Although I disagree with him on pretty much every policy issue, and very strongly, I find Rubio pretty likable and am really surprised he didn't run a better race. I think he could beat either Democratic option if he was the nominee, but that seems a long shot at this point. The general likability that might have served him well later has made him come off too moderate to win the nomination, though his record says otherwise on every issue except immigration. I'll disagree with Cruz being likable in any way. I do think he still has a spot in the conversation about becoming the nominee, but he's pretty extreme on a lot of the issues where many moderates and independents prefer a higher degree of flexibility and I can't see him winning in the general for that reason.

On the Democratic side, I think Bernie has a stronger shot than many realize. Until very, very recently, he was completely ignored in the media. He is very appealing to many moderates and independence for having the 'ole "outsider" vibe. I won't use my nearby friends and family as an example-I live in arguably the bluest state in the union-but when I started to see a distant family member who lives on a military base in Arizona post pro-Bernie memes, and her friends respond favorably, I realized he was getting his message into unusual areas. I think he's likely to win Iowa and NH, which will empower undecided Dems in other states to see him as electable.

That said, Hilary is the prohibitive favorite and I still think the more likely nominee. I think she would beat any leading Republican except for Rubio. I think Bloomberg could make things interesting in any scenario. Most of the country does want someone moderate who can compromise, but the primary process pretty much eliminates anyone with those qualities. I also think that Biden would have been a slam dunk had he run.

vlagrl29 · January 2016

DH is absolutely certain Trump will be the GOP nominee - I"m still in denial lol. I like Rand Paul. Everyone is assuming Clinton will get the Dem nom and they are probably right but Bernie seems really passionate when I watch the debates and a lot of people like him - I think that will be a close call. I will be honest if it's Trump vs Clinton I believe Trump will win. Lots of people don't trust Clinton me included. If that's really how it comes down I think I will end up voting Independent - I'm still very undecided. I usually wait to decide until both parties make a nomination. I consider myself and Independent. I see things I like from both parties and wish I could make that into 1 person.

DH's theory is Biden will get in last minute if Clinton somehow stepped out. I have to admit as well that watching clinton and trump debate would be very entertaining.

vlagrl29 · January 2016

hoffse said:

I really don't think she's going to get indicted. A lot of that is at the discretion of whoever would prosecute her, and I just don't see that happening.

On the flip side, if I'm wrong and it does happen, I think it will be after she gets the nomination. That would derail things in a really crazy way.

Intellectually I think it would be really interesting to see Bernie/Trump race, if only because they are so different in many ways but so similar in others. It would really be the first election in ages where special interest money just doesn't do much. Bernie is above it and Trump is too rich to care.

I don't know about Cruz being likeable. From what I've read about him personally, it sounds like virtually nobody likes him after they meet him. That's bad news for a president. Slightly off topic, but the tweets about him from his college roommate were some of the funniest things I've read on the internet in a long time.

She should though. I think she might but Obama will pardon her. I just can't imagine another 8 years of scandals.

vlagrl29 · January 2016

Also couldn't bloomberg split the D vote? I could see someone voting for him if they didn't like Hilary.

Xstatic3333 · January 2016

vlagrl29 said:

Also couldn't bloomberg split the D vote? I could see someone voting for him if they didn't like Hilary.

He could, but he's claiming he'll only run if Bernie is the nominee. Which I think could be the wrong call on his part. I'd need to learn more about his policy opinions but I would consider him against Hillary.

PurpleBookmark · January 2016

My best guess is Trump vs. Clinton with Clinton winning. Same result if it's Cruz v. Clinton. I could see Rubio v. Clinton too, I feel like that would be a closer race.

If Sanders won the Democratic nomination I'm really not sure who would win. While I am a Clinton fan, I do kind of like Jeb Bush but he seems to not have much of a chance at this point in time.

Is this the time of year when President Obama entered the field? I'm wondering if someone that hasn't even entered yet could become a contender or if it's too late at this point.

BlueBirdMB · January 2016

You should all definitely come over to the politics board. We're all very civil actually. I've been very proud of all the discussions and how much common ground we've all managed to find and even if we don't agree, we don't beat it to death.

I think it's a toss up. Too many Republicans in the field to really tell at this point. In 2000 GW was 20 something points ahead of McCain in NH, then McCain beat GW by 18 points. Of course GW ended up winning. It's anyone's race.

Clinton will definetely beat Sanders at the end of the day. He may be giving her a run for her money, but it's not going to pan out for him. The DNC wants her to have it too badly. I'm trying to resign myself that Trump vs. Clinton is a real possibility, which kills me. I'm losing sleep over the fact that Trump could be the nominee (I'm very obsessed and it's unhealthy- my husband has forbidden me to watch or read the news at night so I can sleep lol).

If anyone is really into politics, they should take a drive up to NH next week after Iowa. There are tons of "political junkies" who travel from other states to see the circus. My favorite part of primary day is riding down the main street in Manchester (largest city in the state). It's hysterical!. There are crowds for each candidate lining the street waving signs and chanting slogans. You can literally meet every candidate in person and talk to them one on one. Ride on up, folks! Especially you New England gals.

hoffse · January 2016

Nah I don't think Bernie has a shot in the general election, and I think the DNC knows it. He has a populist appeal at the moment, but he's way too far left for the undecideds and moderates.

He has a couple issues that I don't think he will be able to overcome in the primaries. His tax math is pretty bad. The Tax Foundation recently modeled his proposal and estimated a 9.5% loss in GDP over time, with more than a 10% loss in disposable income for taxpayers at all brackets. That's bad news. Sure, the top 1% or whatever has an even higher loss of disposable income in their model, but they also have a lot more of it to lose than the lower brackets.

I also think his association as a Democratic Socialist would pose huge problems in the primaries. Democratic socialism is actually a thing - and it's quite different from the Marxist brand of socialism that everybody thinks about - but he's not going to be able to quiet the airwaves long enough to educate people about it. It would be so easy for any GOP candidate to latch onto the socialism thing and carry that message through November. Most voters can't define socialism generally, let alone distinguish between various strains of it. They just view socialism as a threat to America, and that will be enough to write him off.

So yeah, he's too easy of a target. The DNC's only option here is Hillary, unless Biden steps in and saves the day.

I could actually get behind Biden.

Though not going to lie, I would watch a Trump/Hillary debate just for the entertainment value.... if only it wasn't going to be for something so serious as the presidency!

Xstatic3333 · January 2016

@PurpleBookmark and @hoffse my understanding is that it's too late for anyone new to enter the primaries, simply because the process of getting enough signatures to get on the ballots is too time consuming. It's not too late, however, for a third party candidate to enter the general. Unfortunately I can't see Biden, a lifelong DNC guy, doing that. There was talk a few months ago of the RNC going rogue and trying to push through another nominee if Trump stays on top. Has that quieted down? I feel like I've heard less about it since Cruz established himself in second place since he's not highly liked by the RNC either. @BlueBirdMB the idea of driving up to New Hampshire on primary day never crossed my mind, but it could be fun. I'm into politics, but the level of ads you guys get would drive me bonkers! H went to St. A's and got to see lots of debates and stuff while he was in college. He even shook W's hand backstage at a debate for the 2000 election that his friend helped host. ETA What is up with TN today? It ate my formatting. Sorry!

brij2006 · January 2016

I think it's going to be Trump vs Bernie. Ugh.

hoffse said:

Nah I don't think Bernie has a shot in the general election, and I think the DNC knows it. He has a populist appeal at the moment, but he's way too far left for the undecideds and moderates.

He has a couple issues that I don't think he will be able to overcome in the primaries. His tax math is pretty bad. The Tax Foundation recently modeled his proposal and estimated a 9.5% loss in GDP over time, with more than a 10% loss in disposable income for taxpayers at all brackets. That's bad news. Sure, the top 1% or whatever has an even higher loss of disposable income in their model, but they also have a lot more of it to lose than the lower brackets.

I also think his association as a Democratic Socialist would pose huge problems in the primaries. Democratic socialism is actually a thing - and it's quite different from the Marxist brand of socialism that everybody thinks about - but he's not going to be able to quiet the airwaves long enough to educate people about it. It would be so easy for any GOP candidate to latch onto the socialism thing and carry that message through November. Most voters can't define socialism generally, let alone distinguish between various strains of it. They just view socialism as a threat to America, and that will be enough to write him off.

So yeah, he's too easy of a target. The DNC's only option here is Hillary, unless Biden steps in and saves the day.

I could actually get behind Biden.

Though not going to lie, I would watch a Trump/Hillary debate just for the entertainment value.... if only it wasn't going to be for something so serious as the presidency!

That needs to be a reality show.

jtmh2012 · January 2016

brij2006 said:

I think it's going to be Trump vs Bernie. Ugh.

I'm thinking the same thing and I'm good with that.

short+sassy · January 2016

I concur with @smerka and @BlueBirdMB about the political board on here. It is surprisingly civilized. The opinions tend to run Republican but, generally speaking, everyone is respectful of differing opinions. In fact, I especially enjoy the board when there are differing opinions because the posters will debate with each other using facts/their views and in an intelligent manner. I learn the most that way. So different from the name-calling and/or craziness that, unfortunately, I usually see IRL and on other forums.

If the nominations were being decided today, I think it would be Hillary vs. Trump. But a lot can happen in the meantime...especially on the Rep side with so many other candidates to choose from. I agree that a good portion of the population, Rep. and Dem., don't find Hillary trustworthy. Yet, despite that plus her e-mail server issue, I just can't see Bernie being the nom. He is too left for most people.

In a Hillary vs. Trump, I think Hillary would win. Trump is too polarizing and a lot of Reps don't like him. Dems definitely don't. He would split the Rep vote. I joke with my H that, if we were to pretend for a second that POTUS was a position to fill in a company, Trump wouldn't even be called for an interview because he completely lacks one of the core skills of the job...diplomacy.

brij2006 · January 2016

jtmh2012 said:

brij2006 said:

I think it's going to be Trump vs Bernie. Ugh.
I'm thinking the same thing and I'm good with that.

H and I have joked that we'll each vote for 1 of them, that way our vote cancels each other out. At least in our eyes.

vlagrl29 · January 2016

Xstatic3333 said:

vlagrl29 said:

Also couldn't bloomberg split the D vote? I could see someone voting for him if they didn't like Hilary.

He could, but he's claiming he'll only run if Bernie is the nominee. Which I think could be the wrong call on his part. I'd need to learn more about his policy opinions but I would consider him against Hillary.

I was under the assumption that he was already running. I know nothing about him so I would

jtmh2012 said:

brij2006 said:

I think it's going to be Trump vs Bernie. Ugh.
I'm thinking the same thing and I'm good with that.

Me too. You guys aren't giving him enough credit. I've watched most of every debate and I'm starting to think he has a fair chance

Xstatic3333 · January 2016

At this point Bloomberg is still in the research phase, deciding whether it makes sense for him to run. He's a practical guy, and won't move forward unless he has a chance of actually winning. I really think he could; he's socially liberal and more fiscally conservative, and there is big appetite for that in this country. I'm no expert on his policies though, and would need to learn a lot more before making a decision for myself.

vlagrl29 · January 2016

Xstatic3333 said:

At this point Bloomberg is still in the research phase, deciding whether it makes sense for him to run. He's a practical guy, and won't move forward unless he has a chance of actually winning. I really think he could; he's socially liberal and more fiscally conservative, and there is big appetite for that in this country. I'm no expert on his policies though, and would need to learn a lot more before making a decision for myself.

sounds like a possibility for me in case I don't like the ones picked on both sides.

short+sassy · January 2016

Xstatic3333 said:

At this point Bloomberg is still in the research phase, deciding whether it makes sense for him to run. He's a practical guy, and won't move forward unless he has a chance of actually winning. I really think he could; he's socially liberal and more fiscally conservative, and there is big appetite for that in this country. I'm no expert on his policies though, and would need to learn a lot more before making a decision for myself.

I don't know much about him but, just in reference to the bolded for any candidate...OMG, wouldn't that be a breath of fresh air!

BlueBirdMB · January 2016

short+sassy said:

Xstatic3333 said:

At this point Bloomberg is still in the research phase, deciding whether it makes sense for him to run. He's a practical guy, and won't move forward unless he has a chance of actually winning. I really think he could; he's socially liberal and more fiscally conservative, and there is big appetite for that in this country. I'm no expert on his policies though, and would need to learn a lot more before making a decision for myself.

I don't know much about him but, just in reference to the bolded for any candidate...OMG, wouldn't that be a breath of fresh air!

That's not completely true, but I respect the fact that there is logic and critical thinking involved in his policies. He doesn't just run party lines "because".

brij2006 · January 2016

At this point, give me someone who can do a budget and wants to make it a priority to not go deeper and deeper into debt. They'll get my vote whether they're dem or rep.

short+sassy · January 2016

BlueBirdMB said:

short+sassy said:

Xstatic3333 said:

At this point Bloomberg is still in the research phase, deciding whether it makes sense for him to run. He's a practical guy, and won't move forward unless he has a chance of actually winning. I really think he could; he's socially liberal and more fiscally conservative, and there is big appetite for that in this country. I'm no expert on his policies though, and would need to learn a lot more before making a decision for myself.

I don't know much about him but, just in reference to the bolded for any candidate...OMG, wouldn't that be a breath of fresh air!

That's not completely true, but I respect the fact that there is logic and critical thinking involved in his policies. He doesn't just run party lines "because".

Oh no, I wasn't claiming the bolded portion describes him...I don't know either way. I was just saying, in general, it would be a breath of fresh air to have a socially liberal/fiscally conservative candidate.

BlueBirdMB · January 2016

@brij2006 YES.

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