4 weeks

vlagrl29

Trump was on Fallon last night and DH and I watched it.  We were talking about Trump and DH thinks that he really might be the GOP nominee and could go all the way.  Not that he is for him, its just we both think this election cycle is just so different.  DH said he thinks its Trumps plan to not list specifics until he is the nom so that would give the Dems less time to go thru his plans.  

IDK - hoping to catch the debate Thurs.

BlueBirdMB

Trump would never go all the way.  If he's the nominee, he would get KILLED by any opponent.  It would be embarrassing.  Goldwater like loss, but for a different reason. 

nkjacobsma

I'm seeing recent polls saying a Trump vs. Hilary race might actually be close. I think a lot of Democrats don't like her either. I'm really starting to think it might be those two in the end, and it makes me so sad. If Trump had never run, I really think this would have been a really good and clean race that brought people together.

BlueBirdMB

Guys Howard Dean was this far ahead is 2004 and for similar reasons.  He was winning... until he lost...  If you lose any of the 3 early states, it becomes a huge toss up.  The other states like to follow the early states.  Trump will win NH, but lose Iowa and SC- that's my prediction.  And then it's anyone's game.

vlagrl29

nkjacobsma said:

I'm seeing recent polls saying a Trump vs. Hilary race might actually be close. I think a lot of Democrats don't like her either. I'm really starting to think it might be those two in the end, and it makes me so sad. If Trump had never run, I really think this would have been a really good and clean race that brought people together.

I've heard this too - I can actually see it happening.  But now we are hearing how hilarys campaign is imploding.  

BlueBirdMB

vlagrl29 said:

nkjacobsma said:

I'm seeing recent polls saying a Trump vs. Hilary race might actually be close. I think a lot of Democrats don't like her either. I'm really starting to think it might be those two in the end, and it makes me so sad. If Trump had never run, I really think this would have been a really good and clean race that brought people together.

I've heard this too - I can actually see it happening.  But now we are hearing how hilarys campaign is imploding.  

Imploding how?

vlagrl29

Someone posted this on FB last night.  I don't know that I believe it - I still think she will get the D nom and win

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/01/12/hillary_s_campaign_is_imploding

BlueBirdMB

I had heard that Biden was coming out supporting Sanders hardcore, which I find strange.  Sanders has been ahead of Clinton pretty much this whole time in NH.  He's going to win here, no doubt.  He may be closing the gap in Iowa, but Iowa is a strange state (caucusing is a very intimidating process) and I can't see a non-establishment person winning there.  She'll win there.  She is steam rolling him in SC.  After she wins Iowa and SC, it will be all over.  The rest of the states will follow.

I don't really pay attention to Rush Limbaugh either.  He has an unnatural hatred of Clinton.

What every forgets is how much the early states count.  Don't pay attention to national polls now, because they will drastically change after the first few states vote.  After the first 3 or 4 states, the rest just follow suit.  So we'll see how those states pan out.  I'm still holding out for a different line up than the ones we are fearing now.

nkjacobsma

BlueBirdMB said:

Guys Howard Dean was this far ahead is 2004 and for similar reasons.  He was winning... until he lost...  If you lose any of the 3 early states, it becomes a huge toss up.  The other states like to follow the early states.  Trump will win NH, but lose Iowa and SC- that's my prediction.  And then it's anyone's game.

Why do you think he will lose SC? Doesn't he currently have a pretty big lead over there?

BlueBirdMB

nkjacobsma said:

BlueBirdMB said:

Guys Howard Dean was this far ahead is 2004 and for similar reasons.  He was winning... until he lost...  If you lose any of the 3 early states, it becomes a huge toss up.  The other states like to follow the early states.  Trump will win NH, but lose Iowa and SC- that's my prediction.  And then it's anyone's game.

Why do you think he will lose SC? Doesn't he currently have a pretty big lead over there?

Not in the few polls I've seen on TV, which made sense to me.  I can't see him appealing to a state that likes conventional politicians.  I haven't seen as many SC polls though.  Maybe things have changed since the last polls I saw, but I also saw some analysts talking about it a few weeks ago, and they mentioned he has been struggling in SC.

BlueBirdMB

Although I just googled it and it seems like he's leading, so I don't know.

BlueBirdMB

And now looking at polls, some have Trump leading in Iowa by a narrow margin.  Some have him winning in NH by a huge margin, some by a tiny margin.  Some have Rubio in second, some have him third or fourth.  I don't know.  These polls are all over the map.

BlueBirdMB

Seriously, look at this: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#

Read all the pages, which is only the last couple of weeks of polls.  It's all over the place.  I need to stop reading these.  It's making me frustrated. 

nkjacobsma

I'm just over here in California waiting for all the early states to get it together. I does make me feel slighter better and less responsible since the contest is usually pretty much determined by the time I get to vote in June.

I think it's ridiculous that 3 early states have so much say, though.

MommyLiberty5013

nkjacobsma said:

I'm just over here in California waiting for all the early states to get it together. I does make me feel slighter better and less responsible since the contest is usually pretty much determined by the time I get to vote in June.

I think it's ridiculous that 3 early states have so much say, though.

Yeah. I think multiple states should go vote on each day.

short+sassy

It's so crazy how unequal voting is in this country.  Early states have more power.  Swing state voters have more power.  A voter in a state with a small population has substantially more voting power than a voter in a large population state, thanks to our crap electoral college system.

And if you live in Hawaii, as many of my relatives do?  Presidential elections are already done and decided long before people even get off work to go vote.

But you know why I go vote?  Because my vote counts where it matters most.  On state and local politicians and issues.

Probably an UO but, in general, I don't think the POTUS matters nearly as much as people think he does, especially as compared to state and local politicians for peoples' every day lives.  And after every POTUS election, you have to hear cries of how "the sky is falling" from followers of whoever lost.  I promise.  Life pretty much stays the same and it always does.  Not even a complaint, just my experience having lived through multiple Dem./Rep. changeovers. 

BlueBirdMB

I mean I personally love it because I get to meet every candidate if I want to, everyone wants to hear my voice and my vote really matters... in presidential primaries and then no one cares again lol.  Seriously, election week every major news station is outside of my studio and the day after the election it's like a ghost town lol.  I get it though.  It's unfair to everyone else. 

short+sassy

BlueBirdMB said:

I mean I personally love it because I get to meet every candidate if I want to, everyone wants to hear my voice and my vote really matters... in presidential primaries and then no one cares again lol.  Seriously, election week every major news station is outside of my studio and the day after the election it's like a ghost town lol.  I get it though.  It's unfair to everyone else. 

That's why I love the rare occasion I get to participate in focus groups.  Companies pay big bucks to do those and so they hang on your every word, lol.